Chemical product phase rebound start

Since March, chemical products dominated by disperse dyes have rebounded. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Securities Exchange, except for disperse dyes, butadiene, ethylene, propylene, PX and other varieties have risen sharply. However, unlike the disperse dyes industry, the prices of most chemicals are only temporarily rebounding.

According to the analysis from Shanghai Securities News, the current rise in prices of chemical products can be classified into two categories: one is the improvement of industry prosperity, the price rise, the performance of substantial growth, mainly including dyes, polyester industrial silk and other industries; the other is butadiene , ethylene, propylene, PX and other prices, rebounded sharply in the last week to a month or two.

Compared with the recent price increase of disperse dyes, the short-term rebound in the prices of butadiene, ethylene, propylene, and PX is also worthy of attention. Statistics show that in the recent week, the price of butadiene rose by 15.06% to close at 6,367.78 yuan per ton; crude benzene rose by 14.42% in the latest week, closing at 4,617.11 yuan per ton. Taking butadiene as an example, from the perspective of its industry fundamentals, according to the analysis of the business community, the price of butadiene on the international market has recently risen significantly and stabilized, and the downstream synthetic rubber market has also increased. At the same time, the industry has information that Samsung Total plans to shut down the butadiene plant for overhauls. The Yangtse BASF 130,000-ton/year butadiene plant is scheduled to be overhauled for one month from April to May, reducing the supply of about 10,800 tons. Stimulated by the above favorable factors, the domestic butadiene prices have been boosted.

If you look at the amplification for a longer period of time, taking propylene as an example, as of March 3, the spot price in the Shandong market closed at 8100 yuan-8150 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 20% compared with the end of January. According to the analysis of business clubs, in February, the strength of the internal and external disks of propylene rose, the rebound in oil prices, and the fundamentals of supply and demand for propylene were good, which became the main driving force for the upward movement of the market. During the holiday season, the main downstream polypropylene demand shrunk. Propylene production companies cleared their inventory before the holiday and the market’s focus fell slightly. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand for propylene chemicals was good. With the digestion of stocks, the internal and external disks formed a trend of joint upward movement.

In terms of disperse dyes, the dye industry was affected by environmental protection and the price of products rose significantly last year. As of March 5, the mainstream prices of black and blue disperse dyes increased by RMB 5,000 to RMB 10,000/ton on the 5th, and RMB 2000/ton for other small varieties. As a result, since the beginning of this year's New Year's Day, the dispersion of the Black and Disperse Blue series products has increased by 10% to 15% after two or three successive price increases in two months. Industry insiders expect that the price of dyes may increase by another 10% around March 25.

For titanium dioxide, because the inventory pressure is relatively small, the recent non-mainstream anatase titanium dioxide price increases by 300 yuan -500 yuan / ton, the current transaction price has been to 9,000 yuan -10,000 yuan / ton. Specifically, the increase in the price of anatase titanium dioxide was mainly due to the impact of environmental protection thresholds, and the limited start-up of manufacturers in some regions. This led to a slight increase in the production of anatase titanium dioxide in East China, South China, and Southwest China. price. However, for the titanium dioxide industry, the overall average price of titanium dioxide from March 2 to March 6 was weak, ranging from 12683 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week to 12,695 yuan per ton at the weekend, an increase of only 0.10%. Shanghai Securities News

Guangzhou Langqi [0.52% Funds Research Report] (000523): Asian Games concept usher in better opportunities

Fundamental: The company is the leading enterprise in the national daily chemical industry in China. The leading products, Langqi Synthetic Laundry Powder, Soap, and Liquid Detergent are all awarded the title of the famous brand products. At the same time, the company has taken the lead in the development of advanced surfactants and applied technologies in China, and has made breakthroughs in the application and industrialization of MES, reaching an internationally advanced level. In addition, the company's current plant in the urban area has been planned for the Asian Games venue. The company is expected to receive large compensation. The company is expected to usher in better opportunities under the stimulation of the Pearl River Delta Plan and the grand opening of the Guangzhou Asian Games in 2010.

Market side: The daily washing industry where the company is located is a fast-moving consumer goods industry and it is a fully competitive industry. The company’s MES national key new product projects, research and industrialization projects of sulphonated oils and fats, MES washing powder technical transformation projects, cleaner powder production technology transformation projects, and steam double-effect lithium bromide refrigeration technology transformation projects have received government funding. It is reported that, according to relevant regulations, the company may apply for enjoying the relevant preferential policies for three consecutive years from 2009 to 2011, and collect corporate income tax at a tax rate of 15%. In addition, the company expects 2009 net profit to increase by 50% to 100% year-on-year. In 2009, it will extract 2.7 million yuan to 3.6 million yuan for 2009 profit distribution, ie, it plans to implement a distribution of 0.15 to 0.20 yuan for every 10 shares ( Taxes and bonuses are not paid, nor are capitalizations transferred to share capital.

Value Judgment: In the secondary market, in order to clarify the market's high transfer expectations rumors, the company’s annual distribution plan was released ahead of schedule, and the market’s recognition of it was high. The company’s share price rose strongly along the 10-day moving average. In recent days, after a slight technical correction, the stock price San Liyang opened the second attack, investors can actively concerned. (Henderson Investment)

Nanfeng Chemical [0.52% Funds Research Report] (000737): Drop in gross profit margin significantly weighed on the company's net profit performance

Earnings forecast and investment rating: According to the three quarterly reports, we adjusted our earnings forecast for the company. We expect the company's 2012 EPS to be -0.08 yuan, 0.01 yuan and 0.03 yuan, and the corresponding dynamic PE of 5.20 yuan on October 29th. At -65x, 532x, and 168x, respectively, we maintain our "neutral" investment rating given the fierce competition in the daily washing industry and the company's current lack of valuation advantages. (Astronomical Investment Research Institute)

Sanonda A (000553): It is expected that the price of glyphosate will rebound

The company is one of the largest pesticide manufacturers in China. Its main business is the production and sales of chemical and pesticide products. The main products are spermine, glyphosate, dichlorvos, and quinones. . The company's Methaldehyde project has been completed and it is expected to gradually start production and gain profits this year. At the same time, the second and third quarters are the sales season of pesticide preparations. The company is expected to achieve better sales growth, especially after the glyphosate is digested last year. In the second half of the year, when the peak season of sales arrives, the current price will rebound, and the recovery of small businesses will not be enough. The price rebound is expected to continue.

In the secondary market, the stock maintained a concussion trend and rebounded on the 5th line on Thursday. The company is expected to serve as an integrated platform for China Agricultural Chemicals, and investors can pay due attention. (Haitong Securities [0.98% Capital Research Report] Deng Qinhua)

Shenyang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. [9.96% Funds Research Report] (000698): High growth and strong cyclicality

The company's main business consists of four parts: one is the production of chlor-alkali chemical [3.64% fund research] business mainly consisting of PVC paste resin; the second is the DCC oil refining unit, which mainly produces gasoline, diesel and propylene; and the third is based on self-produced propylene. , Production of acrylic acid and esters and propylene oxide; Fourth, recently put into production CPP plant, mainly produces ethylene and propylene. The CPP project provides the flexibility of the petrochemical business cycle. Under the current product prices, CPP projects can roughly provide about 10 million pretax profits in one month. DCC provides a more stable profit. Since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism for refined oil products in early 2009, there has been a turnaround in the domestic oil refining industry. In the first half of the year, DCC devices contributed nearly a hundred million yuan in pre-tax profits, which is the company’s main source of profit.

It is expected that the company's earnings per share for 2009-2011 will be 0.19, 0.43 and 0.63 yuan respectively. Although the valuation is not cheap, but the high growth and high flexibility of the petrochemical cycle, give "prudent recommendation-A" rating. (China Merchants Securities [0.39% fund research report])

Jiangshan Chemical [0.87% Funds Research Report] (002061): High-Capability Expansion Expansion Buying

In 2009, the company achieved a total operating income of 1.184 billion yuan, an increase of 1.98% year-on-year; it achieved a turnaround and profit, with a net profit of 65.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.79 million yuan. 2009 earnings per share of 0.5 yuan.

Jiangshan Chemical currently has a total capacity of 180,000 tons of DMF, 40,000 tons of DMAC, 10,000 tons of epoxy resin and 110,000 tons of equipment. The first-phase construction of the company's Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Jiangshan Chemical has been completed. After the commissioning and production, the company will add 50,000 tons of DMF equity production capacity. In addition, the company's DMAC production capacity will also increase to 60,000 tons.

The company's main application areas of DMF are PU leather pulp and electronic copper clad laminates. Both of these areas will benefit from the recovery of exports, and are also an important area of ​​domestic consumption. Demand growth is relatively clear; at the same time, DMF is currently experiencing overcapacity; however, the company is currently Together with Hua Lu Hengsheng [1.27% Capital Research Report], it constitutes the first echelon of DMF production in the world, together occupying 50% of the world's market share and 70% of domestic market share. The two companies have formed a very obvious oligopolistic advantage, and Jiangshan Chemical It also has new DMF capacity to put in. It is expected that the company's market share will increase from 30% to 35% after the launch.

DMAC products are mainly used for spandex production. The rapid expansion of spandex demand is the driving force behind the expansion of the company's DMAC capacity, and the application of DMAC is expanding toward higher purity. At present, the company occupies more than 50% of DMAC's domestic market share, is a well-deserved industry leader and has a strong industrial dominance.

At present, DMF has a de facto price alliance; in addition, Jiangshan Chemical's Inner Mongolia Jiangshan Yuanxing Company is closer to coal and methanol resources, and its cost accounting is lower by nearly 1,000 yuan compared with the eastern region; more important raw materials such as methanol and other products are overseas. Under the impact of the first low-priced products, the rate of price increase is slower than that of DMF. Therefore, we believe that the profit level of DMF will remain within a reasonable range of 11.75-13% for at least one year and a half. DMAC's product prices are benchmarks, and the splendor of the spandex industry supports the high gross profit of DMAC products. In addition, the company’s expansion of high-purity products will also bring higher profit margins. Once again, the company’s capacity expansion will bring economies of scale, so we believe that The gross profit of DMAC products will at least maintain or exceed the 2009 status.

The NMP project that was extended to the downstream of the company's industrial chain was again denied, showing that the relocation of the company's old factory in Jiangshan city area is imminent. The total area of ​​the plot is 330 mu. The relocation price should not be lower than 2.3 million yuan/mu based on the local land price. .

Excluding epoxy resin and relocation claims, we expect the company's 2010-2012 earnings per share to be 0.65, 0.86, and 0.90 yuan, with a “buy” rating of 22-25 times valuation and a target price of 16.58-18.85 yuan. (Shanxi Securities [-0.07% Capital Research Report] Zhang Xu)

Shanxi Three-dimensional [0.00% Funds Research Report] (000755): Industry Significantly Improves Bargaining Concerns

Comments: The company's industry is organic fine chemical industry, leading products are polyvinyl alcohol resin and its downstream series of products, adhesives, benzene refining four major series of products, are technology-intensive fine chemical products, occupying the dominant domestic similar products status. With China's economy taking the lead and the global economy improving year by year, it is expected that the development of the industry will be greatly improved and the company will fully benefit.

However, the company's current performance is still at a low point. Following last year's micro-income, the company has forecasted a loss for the first quarter of this year, with a net profit of approximately -15 million yuan. After pulling up for several consecutive days, there were two institutional seats yesterday to limit sales and sold a total of more than 38 million yuan.

From a technical point of view, the K-week line of the stock has shown that since the August 2009 high, the stock price has been oscillating and has formed a large open-ended double open state. This year, the stock price has tested the support of the year line several times, and all of them were held up by buying orders. The recent stock price continuous Yangxian also shows that there is the intention of funds to eat goods. Yesterday's stock price after the previous day's Xipan after finishing power upside, breaking the previous high point in one fell swoop, strong characteristics revealed. However, taking into account the recent cumulative increase, and institutional rallies distributed, investors are advised to take a dip.

Rainbow Elaboration [7.58% Capital Research Report] (002256)

1. The company is principally engaged in the production and sale of aerosol paints, covering three areas of functional coatings, automotive beauty care, and household products. The company's current production capacity includes 35 million cans of functional coatings and 10 million cans of automotive home care products. From the perspective of growth rate, the company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2009 was low and high, and the net profit slightly increased compared with the same period of last year. Looking at the year, we expect the company's output to be approximately 50-60 million cans. The year is basically flat.

2. Look at the channel in the short term and look at the brand in the long term. The company's sales model includes distribution, direct sales, franchise stores, etc., where distribution accounted for approximately 70% of revenue, and interior and exterior wall functional coatings are mainly sold through “Hongcaili Lijia” franchise stores. If customers have special requirements for performance, the company will adopt customization. Direct sales model. In order to increase product penetration rate, in 2009 the company stepped up its market network construction and lowered the distribution channels from the provincial agency to the county and city level. The number of marketing staff increased from 54 in 2008 to nearly 100 now, and the company’s sales in 2009 were achieved. The cost has increased significantly and the sales expense rate has risen accordingly. We believe that channel construction is a necessary input for the company to increase its brand influence and market share, and will lay the foundation for the company's future investment projects. In the short term, the development of public services will be driven by sales. In the long run, the future competitiveness of the company will be reflected in the brand. At present, the company’s “7CF” is a well-known trademark in China.

3. The customer's price sensitivity is low and the gross margin level is stable. The company's aerosol paint users include small home appliances, hardware, outdoor signs, car owners and homes, etc. Customers use less, the product price is relatively low, the current average price per canister is 5 to 6 yuan, so the customer price sensitivity Lower, with the decline in raw material prices in 2009, the company made corresponding adjustments to product prices, but the overall magnitude is not. Due to the company's product attributes, better gross margin levels are expected to be maintained in the future.

4. Acquired Nart and quickly entered the field of building energy efficiency. In October 2009, the company obtained a 52% stake in Narvik by way of transferee equity and capital increase. In 2008, due to financial problems, Nalter Group was caught in a business crisis. After negotiations with Nalte, Nalte reorganized the core business buildings insulation plastics, insulation grids, interior and exterior wall coatings, and supporting thermal insulation projects. Wen, therefore, the company actually obtained the core assets of Narte and quickly entered the field of building energy conservation, and Nart is expected to resume normal operation after obtaining the necessary liquidity support. Pursuant to the acquisition agreement, Nalte Group has promised Nasdaq to achieve 10 years of performance. In 10 years, the guaranteed bottom performance of Naer Wen is a net profit of 30 million yuan. If there is any deficiency, it will be filled by the Nalte Group. According to the company's 52% equity, Naer Wen contributed at least 15 million yuan to the company for 10 years.

5. Accelerated fund raising projects. In view of the uncertainty caused by the financial crisis, the company postponed the investment of 110 million cans of aerosol paint projects originally scheduled to be completed by the end of 2009. In 2010, the company will accelerate the construction of fund-raising projects, and the future performance of new projects can be expected to contribute.

6. Earnings forecast and investment rating. We expect the earnings per share of the company in 2009 and 2010 to be 0.3 yuan and 0.47 yuan respectively, but for the first time, given the company’s potential brand value, the possibility of 10 year Na’erman’s performance exceeding expectation, and the project for raising funds, for the first time, “recommend "Investment rating.

Yantai Spandex (0002254): The biggest highlight of Kevlar's future

Spandex demand is strong, stimulating significant growth in company performance

From January to June 2010, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 700 million, an increase of 37.4% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 140 million, an increase of 388.7% year-on-year; and basic EPS was RMB 0.55, only RMB 0.11 of the same period of last year. .

Due to the recovery of the downstream textile industry, since the second half of 2009, domestic spandex continued to maintain the momentum of both production and sales, resulting in a substantial increase in the company's product gross margin. During the reporting period, the gross profit rate of spandex reached 32.45%, an increase of 27.04 percentage points year-on-year; the gross profit rate of Kevlar reached 36.88%, a year-on-year increase of 2.35 percentage points.

In the future, spandex will pay for premium, and Kevlar recovery will continue.

Affected by the improvement of the industry’s profitability, the domestic spandex industry’s investment enthusiasm has increased. Since the beginning of this year, the industry’s new capacity has increased dramatically, and there is a risk of decreasing the price of spandex in the future. At the same time, the increase in the price of PTMG will cause the increase in costs and will further affect the profitability of the industry. In addition, we expect the 3,000 tons of medical spandex in the second half of this year and the production of 7,000 tons of comfortable spandex in 2011 will become the main driving force for the future growth of the company's spandex business.

Aramid is a globally competitive industry. With the gradual recovery of the global economy, the foreign aramid market will continue to maintain its recovery trend. In addition, in 2011, the only domestic aramid fiber 1414 production line built by the company is expected to be put into production. This, as a typical import substitution product, will become the biggest highlight of the company's future growth.

Earnings forecast and investment rating

We initially expect the company's 2010-2011 earnings per share to reach 1.02 and 1.30 yuan, corresponding to PE valuations of 23 and 18 times, respectively, which have certain valuation advantages. At the same time, we consider that the company is currently the only manufacturer with aramid 1414 production capacity in China, and this business is very likely to become the most important source of company's performance beyond expectations. In view of this, we give the company a “recommended” investment rating. .

Huafeng Spandex [0.67% Funds Research Report] (002064): Spandex leader companies with greater performance flexibility

High-speed growth in first-half results

In the first half of the year, the company realized operating revenue of 825 million yuan, an increase of 60.29%; operating profit of 203 million yuan, an increase of 23,940%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 178 million yuan, an increase of 2,002% over the same period of last year; basic earnings per share 0.24 yuan.

Market Research Department Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Gross profit rate increased substantially year-on-year and may fall back in the second half of the year

In the first half of this year, the company's main business gross margin was 33.60%, a substantial increase of 27.41 percentage points from the same period of last year, mainly due to the continuous rise of spandex product prices in the first half of the year. The average selling price of the company's spandex products rose in the first half of 2010 from the same period of last year About 30.91%.

However, since the beginning of May, the price of spandex products has declined, and at the same time, the power-limiting policy of summer peak electricity consumption has also had a certain impact on the company’s production. In addition, the price of PTMEG in the domestic market has significantly increased in the second quarter of this year, which has exerted great pressure on the company's gross profit margin. Therefore, although the company's gross profit margin in the third quarter is expected to continue to maintain a relatively high level, it may experience a decline from the previous quarter.

Addition of differentiated spandex capacity boosts future growth

At present, the company is actively constructing an annual production of 15,000 tons of high-temperature thin fabric special spandex project, plans to put into operation in July 2011. After the completion of the project, it is expected that the sales revenue will be RMB 900.98 million in normal years and the total annual profit will be RMB 214.14 million. The implementation of this project will help the company to further increase the production rate of spandex products, and it will play a positive role in increasing the gross profit rate of products and improving the profitability of the company.

Investment rating

We expect the company's 2010-2012 EPS to be 0.44 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.66 yuan respectively, based on the closing price of 10.11 yuan on August 23. The corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio will be 23 times, 18 times, and 15 times, respectively, to maintain the company's "recommended" Investment rating.

Tianke Co., Ltd. [0.82% Funds Research Report] (600378): Technical Leading Stable Recovery

The company is an enterprise engaged in the development of environmental protection technologies. It has leading domestic technology in the field of pressure swing adsorption gas separation, methanol and dimethyl ether synthesis process and related catalysts, and it is an international leader in gas recovery rate, molecular sieve adsorbent capacity, etc. As the current environmental protection has received more and more attention, the growth of the industry is optimistic.

The company has multiple themes such as Chengdu-Chongqing Special Economic Zone, energy conservation and environmental protection, and coal chemical industry. The company has mastered the process technology of methanol synthesis from natural gas, coal and coke oven gas, and methanol gas-phase catalytic dehydration to produce dimethyl ether. It is the sole holder of domestic gas-phase dimethyl ether technology. The company and Southwest Chemical Research and Design Institute took the lead in researching and developing dimethyl ether production technology in China. It was listed as a national “Eighth Five-Year Plan” scientific and technological research project, and achieved industrialization in 1994. It applied for two Chinese invention patents in 1995 and 2003 respectively. And authorized. The company's domestic market share of up to 200,000 tons of dimethyl ether plants has reached 85%. The company has leading domestic technology in the field of pressure swing adsorption gas separation (PSA), methanol, dimethyl ether synthesis process and related catalysts. Its gas recovery rate, molecular sieve adsorbent adsorption capacity and other aspects are leading internationally. The industry has become a pillar industry of the company. The company's large-scale pressure swing adsorption equipment has replaced imported pressure swing adsorption equipment in petrochemical and other industries, and has become the main force for gas separation in the petrochemical industry.

In the secondary market, the stock has continuously returned to the adjustment trend recently. The trading volume has shrunk significantly year-on-year. Today, the stock opened slightly higher and showed volatility in intraday trading. The stock price has stabilized and stabilized, and the stock is expected to expand in volume in the short term. Rebound, investors can focus on.