Abstract In 2016, China's machine tool market and industry still have some chills, but under the influence of macroeconomic recovery, we feel more or less warm. Will this warmth continue in 2017? The fifteenth China International Machine Tool Exhibition held recently...
In 2016, China's machine tool market and industry still have some chills, but under the influence of macroeconomic recovery, we feel more or less warm. Will this warmth continue in 2017? At the press conference of the 15th China International Machine Tool Exhibition held recently, Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, said that it will benefit from the growth of real estate, automobile and technology consumption new business, 2017 The trend towards a stable machine tool industry will continue. Chen Huiren analyzed that the machine tool market benefited from the real estate market and the automotive market. From the data of the first two months of 2017, China's real estate development investment increased by 8.9% year-on-year. The performance of the automobile market in January and February was also good. The production and sales of automobiles in the first two months of 2017 increased steadily. In February, the domestic automobile production was 2,195,600. , an increase of 33.77%.
Short-term stabilization
According to the prediction of the Oxford Economic Research Institute, the international machine tool consumption market will tend to be stable from 2016 to 2020, and it will show a moderate recovery, which will help China's go-out strategy.
Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the industry has shown a trend of stabilization. Chen Huiren said. According to data provided by the Information and Statistics Department of China Machine Tool Industry Association, the total consumption of machine tools in China in 2016 was approximately US$27.5 billion, which was flat year-on-year. Among them, the consumption of metal cutting machine tools was about 16.4 billion US dollars, down 4.1% year-on-year; the consumption of metal forming machine tools was about 11.1 billion US dollars, up 6.7% year-on-year.
In 2016, the total consumption of Chinese tools was approximately US$4 billion, down 11.1% year-on-year. Compared with the growth rate of the above indicators in the same period of 2015, they rose by 13.5, 10.3, 19.0 and 1.0 percentage points respectively. The above data shows that in 2016, China's machine tool consumption market has shown signs of stabilization.
In terms of industrial operation, the prosperity index of China's machine tool industry in 2016 was 53.9%, up 19.4% from the same period of the previous year, reflecting the recent recovery of the industry.
From the specific data, the total output of China's machine tool industry in 2016 was about 22.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.6%. Among them, the output of metal cutting machine tools was about 12.2 billion US dollars, which was flat year-on-year; the output of metal forming machine tools was about 10.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.1%. Machine tool production was about 810,000 units, down 1.1% year-on-year.
In the international market, according to the survey and forecast data of the Oxford Economic Research Institute, the international machine tool consumption and investment in major industrial sectors in the world reached a recent low in 2016 and then rebounded moderately.
In recent years, in order to stabilize growth, adjust the structure, realize supply-side structural reforms, and promote the transformation of economic factors to innovation-driven, the state has introduced a series of economic and industrial policies. According to Mao Yufeng, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Association, these policies have a positive effect on the development of machine tools.
In addition, he pointed out that there are also some positive factors in the domestic market. For example, China's industrialization process is accelerating, there is a huge upside for the integration of the two industries and industrial upgrading, and China's rigid demand after becoming the world's second largest economy.
Stress still exists
While seeing many favorable factors for industrial development, we should also calmly pay attention to the outstanding problems in the current and future industrial development. For example, market demand is sluggish, and old and new kinetic energy conversions are lagging behind.
The reporter learned that in the past five years, the demand for metal processing machine tools has shown a unilateral decline after peaking in 2010. Although there has been a short-term recovery in 2013, the overall trend has been declining; the demand for cutting tools has been fast before 2011. The trend of growth, from the end of 2011, shows the state of the top operation, and began to decline in 2014.
Since the consumption of machine tools is affected by the relationship between money supply and supply and demand, the machine tool industry has experienced a rapid growth of more than a decade, and the traditional users have a large amount of machine tools and short machine tools. Under the general environment of the overcapacity of traditional users and the positive shift of the money supply to neutral, the demand for machine tools will show a downward trend of continued downward pressure.
In the view of Mao Yufeng, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Association, in the next few years, the user industry will increase the capacity of production, and the total demand for machine tools and tools will decline. He also pointed out that the negative factors in the machine tool industry include the decline in operating quality and the unresolved operational risks. For example, the growth rate of the main business income and total profit of the whole industry has been showing a downward trend, and the growth rate of liabilities and accounts receivable has continued to increase significantly.
According to the relevant statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the profit margin of the main business of metal processing machine tools in 2016 was about 4.9%, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than that in 2011. The profit margin of the main business of the tool is about 7.5%, which is the same as in 2011. In 2016, the inventory of finished metalworking machine tools and tools industry increased by 162.2% and 24.4% respectively compared with 2011. In 2016, the accounts receivable of metalworking machine tools and tools industry increased by 64.3% and 71.7% respectively compared with 2011.
Judging from the situation reflected in the network statistics of the Association's industry statistics, the trend of declining operational quality is more obvious. In 2016, the growth rate and profit margin of the main business of metal processing machine tools were -3.4% and -0.6%, respectively, down 18.3 and 6.5 percentage points respectively compared with the same period in 2011. In 2016, the main business revenue growth rate and profit margin of the tools were -2.4% and 5.4%, respectively, down 21.3% and 2.4 percentage points respectively compared with the same period in 2011.
Faced with the above problems, companies in the current industry have taken the initiative and transformation and upgrading to varying degrees in response to market changes. Taking Yawei as an example, in the case of the general decline in the profit margin of machine tool companies in recent years, the company has submitted a beautiful transcript. In 2016, the company achieved operating income of 1.169 billion yuan, an increase of 30.89%; The net profit of shareholders of listed companies was 117 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.75%.
Regarding the changes in the market, Chen Huiren said that the association will take the initiative to unite the industry's demands and strengthen the research on industry development strategy to serve the government and member companies. It is understood that the association has carried out the research on industrial tax preferential policies and the planning of the establishment of industrial technology innovation centers.
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