Abstract The rapid increase in industrial profits now indicates whether the industry has entered a full-scale prosperity or the economy has entered a new cycle, and further observation is needed. Because the current industrial profits are growing rapidly, it is largely due to the large increase in the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial producers, as well as the upstream and downstream of the upstream extrusion...
The current rapid increase in industrial profits can indicate whether the industry has entered a full-scale prosperity or the economy has entered a new cycle, and further observation is needed. Because of the rapid growth of industrial profits, it is largely due to the large increase in the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial producers and the profit from the upstream and downstream industries. Major steel companies have become "printing machines."
According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 27, the profit of steel (ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry) increased by 21.1 times in the first two months of this year, and the profits of nonferrous metals and petroleum processing industries increased by 1.2 times and 1.3 respectively. Times.
The data shows that in the first two months of the year, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 1,015.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%. The 21st Century Business Herald learned that this was the highest growth rate since March 2011, and that year there was a national stimulus of 4 trillion yuan.
However, whether the current rapid increase in industrial profits can indicate that the industry has entered a full-scale prosperity or the economy has entered a new cycle needs further observation. Because of the rapid growth of industrial profits, it is largely due to the large increase in the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial producers and the profit from the upstream and downstream industries.
When the profits of steel, coal, nonferrous metals and other industries rose sharply, the profits of food, medicine and other industries increased at a general rate, and the power industry even experienced a phenomenon of a 39.3% year-on-year decrease in profits.
In this regard, Tang Jianwei, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, pointed out that the current industrial profits are rising rapidly, mainly due to the de-capacity of some industries. It is expected that this upward trend will be maintained in the first quarter.
"If the economy is fully improved or even enters a new cycle, then the profits of all upstream, midstream and downstream enterprises should be restored. The current situation depends on the profits of the upstream industry relying on the squeeze of downstream industries." He said.
Industrial profits hit the highest growth rate in 6 years
According to historical data, the growth rate of industrial profits above designated size in the first two months of 2011 was 32%. In the first two months of this year, the data returned to 31.5%, which is the highest growth rate in six years.
In January-February 2011, the profits of major industrial sectors were generally good. Among the 39 industrial categories, 38 industries saw a year-on-year increase in profits and a loss in one industry. At the same time, although the profit growth rate of major industries is different, it is not too big.
For example, the highest profit at that time was the chemical fiber manufacturing industry and the ferrous metal mining and mining industry. The profits increased by 1.3 times and 1.1 times respectively. The downstream steel profit increased by 26.1%, and the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 16.7%. Electricity and heat production and supply industries grew by 13%.
However, in January-February 2017, among the 41 major industrial sectors, the total profit of 36 industries increased year-on-year, and the five were reduced. At the same time, the profit gap between various industries was large. For example, ferrous metal mining and mining industry profits increased by 80.5%, steel (ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry) increased by 21.1 times, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.2 times, petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry increased by 1.3 times.
Dr. He Ping from the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics believes that industrial profits in the first two months of the year have seen rapid growth, relying more on the rapid increase in prices of coal, steel and crude oil.
Such an increase in profits is largely not a sign of overheating or accelerating the economy, but the country's reduction in production capacity such as steel and coal has caused prices to rise.
The PPI rose by 7.8% in February, the highest since 2008. According to estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics and some institutions, the increase in profits due to rising prices accounted for 22.7% of the total profits of industrial enterprises in January and February.
Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Steel Research Center, pointed out that the sharp rise in the entire industry in January and February also brought rich profits to the steel industry. "The steel price in the first half of the year still has some momentum to rebound, but for the second half of the year, there will be many uncertain factors as the capacity goes to work. Overall, the base price of steel for the whole year can still surpass last year. "she says.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the price of the third-grade rebar in Tangshan, Hebei Province on March 27 was 3,650 yuan per ton, which was lower than the March 16 high of 3,860 yuan/ton. The price of billet on March 27 was 3,050 yuan per ton, which was also lower than the 3,310 yuan per ton in March 20, but still doubled the increase over the same period last year.
Upstream and downstream profit
Sustainability is doubtful because current industrial profits are concentrated in a small number of industries and there is a situation in which the upstream and downstream are squeezed.
Tang Jianwei, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, pointed out that the rapid increase in prices through de-capacity is difficult to sustain, so the next price trend may be a moderate upward trend, but it is unlikely to have a "violent" rise.
He believes that the next step needs to pay attention to several aspects of the industrial sector, such as whether state-owned enterprises are “conducting†or “squeezing†the profits of private enterprises; how the upstream industry is conducting price transmission to the middle and lower reaches; and paying attention to the deviation between investment and consumption. Do not cause squeezing.
“Upstream production materials production enterprises are still dominated by large enterprises, competition is not sufficient, and price increases are relatively easy. However, the pricing power of middle and downstream production enterprises is relatively limited, and it is difficult for them to increase the price through the price increase of their products. The result of the transfer is that the profit of the upstream enterprises has formed a 'squeeze' rather than a 'conduction' effect on the profitability of the middle and lower reaches," he said.
The data shows that when the profits of coal, steel, oil and other industries rose, the profitability of these industries in the downstream sector was not satisfactory. In January-February 2017, profits from the electricity, heat production and supply industries fell by 39.3%, while profits from railway, marine, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries fell by 10.9%, while other manufacturing industries fell by 1.6%.
This year, the National Development and Reform Commission decided to use more market-based means to solve the problem of de-capacity, which may cause coal and steel prices to rise in the new year will not be higher than 2016.
Zhang Xucheng, a coal analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that coal is currently in a recovery period of profitability. Prices are high in January and February, and prices may fall slightly in the next few months. This year's coal prices will show some fluctuations.
"At present, coal enterprises are in a stage of recovery from the bottom. It will not be a profiteering period 12 years ago. The state has also paid more attention to the price and production capacity of coal." He said, "At present, coal-electricity linkage is uncoordinated in some areas. Coal enterprises make more money, and it is difficult for electricity companies to make money. The next step is to prevent the emergence of the 'seesaw' effect (high and low profits in the coal and power industries)."
Zinc stearate is a white powder, insoluble in water.It is mainly used as lubricant and release agent of styrene resin, phenolic resin and amine resin.At the same time in the rubber also has vulcanization active agent, softener function.
It is mainly used as lubricant and release agent of styrene resin, phenolic resin and amine resin.At the same time in the rubber also has vulcanization active agent, softener function.For example, it can be used as a heat stabilizer for PVC resin.For general industrial transparent products;With calcium soap, can be used for non-toxic products, general this product is used for soft products, but in recent years have begun to use hard transparent products such as mineral water bottles, water pipes and other products, this product lubricity is good, can improve the phenomenon of fouling precipitation, but also as a lubricant, release agent, and paint smooth agent, coating additives.
Stearic acid zinc salt,Zinc Stearate Powder,stearic acid,stearic acid amide,hemical zinc stearate powder
Guangzhou Quanxu Technology Co Ltd , http://www.skychema.com