What is the new normal of the economy? How to establish a new normal of the economy? What should the government and enterprises do? The famous economist Wu Jinglian said at the China Civil Chamber of Commerce forum held in Hangzhou on the afternoon of the 3rd that the "old normal" of China's economy has broken the consensus, but the new economic normal is still not fully established. Only continue to promote reform, improve efficiency, and optimize the structure. Only to establish a new normal of the economy.
Wu Jinglian believes that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing and the economic growth rate is slowing down. But this is not an indicator of the new normal. "Only the medium-speed or low-speed growth supported by relatively high efficiency can be regarded as a true new normal. The growth without efficiency support can not be maintained." Wu Jinglian said.
Wu Jinglian further explained that China's previous economic growth mainly relied on investment, demographic dividend, reform and opening up, and urbanization. However, the driving force of these factors has gradually disappeared, and the contribution of innovation in economic growth is still small. The key to changing the way of economic growth is still to improve efficiency, added value and profitability, and find new impetus.
In recent years, China’s economic growth rate has dropped from an annual growth rate of nearly 10% to 7.3% in the third quarter of this year. In this form, Wu Jinglian believes that it is no longer possible to raise the GDP growth rate in the short term with a strong stimulus policy similar to the trillions of loans.
"The advantage of taking a loose money and increasing investment is to be able to see the market rebound in a short time, but the downside is that it can't solve the fundamental problem, and at the same time create an illusion of prosperity, making companies reluctant to work hard to improve efficiency, and the economic growth mode is instead Delay." Wu Jinglian said.
Wu Jinglian believes that enterprises should not be supported by the form of “big flood irrigationâ€. Because of the limited resources, “squatting and eating food†will result in high debt. Because enterprises and government debt investment and over-investment have caused China's debt ratio to rise, leading to the transmission of the debt-servicing crisis and chain reaction, it is easy to accumulate and form a systemic crisis.
Wu Jinglian believes that the establishment of the new economic normal should still focus on promoting economic system reform. On the one hand, relying on macroeconomic policies to regulate and control, at the same time, in the case of high debt ratio, it is necessary to stop the invalid investment with low or no return, stop the blood transfusion of “zombie enterprisesâ€, and implement bankruptcy for insolvent enterprises. Complete and stop the “rigid redemption†release risk, use state-owned capital to repay the government’s contingent liabilities, revitalize the dead assets caused by extensive growth, and implement flexible monetary policy, etc., through a series of measures to plug loopholes and reduce risks.
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