Abstract After a wave of retreats at the end of August, Jin Jiu has passed one-sixth of the time. From the perspective of the operation of the building materials market, although the overall trend has increased, it is far less than the expectations of the merchants. Then, can the domestic building materials market continue the rising market in July and August? The author will take...
After a wave of retreats at the end of August, Jin Jiu has passed one-sixth of the time. From the perspective of the operation of the building materials market, although the overall trend has increased, it is far less than the expectations of the merchants. Then, can the domestic building materials market continue the rising market in July and August? The author will analyze the following main factors: First of all, the problem of high output is still a stumbling block.
According to the latest statistics of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in key enterprises in mid-August was 1.739 million tons. The national average annual output of crude steel was 2,118,100 tons, down 25,600 tons from the first half of August and down 1.19% from the previous month. Although the average daily production capacity of crude steel has declined since the beginning of July, it is still operating at a high level of 2.1 million tons. With the seasonal warming of demand in September, the domestic steel enterprises are still strong in increasing production impulses, which can predict the domestic thickening in September. Steel production will continue to operate at a high level, and the domestic steel market supply pressure will not decrease.
Second, demand is expected to be optimistic. There are three main aspects:
1. The seasonal demand will improve. As the weather turns cooler, the downstream construction will also accelerate.
2. Under the policy of steady investment growth of the state, the investment in domestic railways, highways, real estate and infrastructure construction has gradually increased, but it is worth noting that the implementation of policies generally has a lag period, usually around 2 months;
3. The economic situation improved. In August, the official and HSBC PMI both rose to above 50. The manufacturing industry continued to pick up, and the demand for the steel industry also had a certain pulling effect.
Third, the business mentality is cautious. From the perspective of recent social and steel enterprise stocks, the willingness of merchants to sell goods is not high. According to the latest data, the leading urban social stocks have started to rise in mid-August. In addition, by the end of mid-August, the steel stocks of key steel enterprises were 12.826 million tons, up 5.47% from the previous month. Steel mills and social stocks rebounded at the end of August, indicating that merchants are cautious and wait-and-see attitude toward the market outlook.
Finally, monetary policy is “betterâ€. On August 19, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, once again stressed that a prudent monetary policy will still be implemented in the second half of this year, which means that the financial dilemma of the new round of investment plans is becoming a reality. Although the recent high-level intentions to attract private capital, due to the long period of recovery of infrastructure investment, and the lack of income distribution rights and voice, directly lead to private capital concerns about investment. In addition, September is the end of the third quarter, in addition to facing the repayment of steel mills, traders will also face the bank's centralized repayment of loans, so it is likely that there will be a renewed situation at the end of June.
In summary, although the market is more optimistic about demand in September, due to high output, tight funding, and lagging investment, the business mentality is generally cautious. It is expected that the building materials market in September will show an embarrassing situation of “bullishing without risingâ€. It is recommended that the merchants continue to maintain the fast-forward and fast-out principle.
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