Abstract This is a revolution. In history, companies have always followed the banner action. The banner points to a certain place, and the enterprise follows it. Every century is like this. But today our power has changed. Now it is the enterprise that is ahead, and then this banner is keeping up. This is...
This is a revolution. In history, companies have always followed the banner action. The flag points to a certain place, and the enterprise follows it. Every century is like this. But today our power has changed. Now it is the enterprise that is ahead, and then this banner is keeping up. This is like the previous state breaking various restrictions and opening diplomatic relations to support the country's import and export. Today, the demand for doing so is not so great. We live in an open world, and policies often change with the pace of the business. I was recently honoured to recommend to the German Chancellor a book called "Second Machine Age", written by McCafferty, a colleague at MIT. The most discussed in the book is the current hot spot, which is the three industrial revolutions in the past century and the key trends in the future industry 4.0 era.
I. The past three industrial revolutions
The first industrial revolution
In the hundreds of years before the first industrial revolution, the world has hardly changed. And two hundred years ago, the first industrial revolution announced the end of this relatively stable world. At the end of the 19th century, with the invention of the steam engine, the birth of the mechanical power industry completely transformed the textile industry at that time. This was indeed a development at the time. The workers would say, “Wait, what happened here? The textile industry has become automated, so we are all unemployed.†If you understand that history, you will find that the workers were there. Fight the machine. Germany in 1850 also faced the same problem. But it is this technology that has accelerated industrial manufacturing, greatly increased productivity, and provided a critical foundation for the glory of the British royal family for 130 years.
2. The second industrial revolution
Many years later, this change took place in another country, the second industrial revolution dominated by electricity in the United States. But the more important finding of the Americans is that they don't have to use one big machine to produce, and they can build a line so that the car can be built faster. Henry Ford once said: "As long as the T-car is black, people can paint it to any color they like." This becomes an experience curve. Each doubling of production can reduce costs by 25%. Today, this clearly leads the development of the German automotive industry, and has enabled Germany to significantly promote this assembly line after the war and develop engineering technology to rebuild the entire country. It took 100 years, but after the third revolution, things changed quickly.
3. The third industrial revolution
The Internet is known as the third industrial revolution, and as Thomas Freeman said, the world is flat. The stored space becomes infinite, and the link barrier between people disappears. This means that, in theory, the progress of productivity makes what I know here can be sent to people in other parts of the world immediately. This is the direction we are heading and it is also a wonderful thing. It seems incredible that In this era, knowledge has begun to become the most critical driver.
So, what is the theoretical cornerstone of the world in which we (especially you, the Chinese) survive? I think that in the next industrial revolution era, there are ten keywords that are most worthy of attention.
Second, the top ten keywords of the fourth industrial revolution
Knowledge
The power of knowledge changes society in all aspects. The increasing knowledge makes traditional resources become less and less important, and knowledge becomes the dominant force in social development. The important thing is that we don't know how to measure knowledge. Although everyone is an expert in computing, we never know how to calculate knowledge, how to write it as a book, how to calculate its residual value, and how to update it.
Peter Chuck said that knowledge does not know national boundaries. Without domestic, local or global knowledge, the development of the world economy promotes the process of globalization through emerging technology industries. As a result, market segment leaders within the global organization have emerged, and the sudden emergence of market segment leaders is driving the advancement of this commodity worldwide. If you can only use Twitter and Facebook in the United States, you will feel anxious, you can only touch what you can touch, but knowledge cannot be confined to a country or region.
When Germany re-merged, some parts of East Germany did not receive Western television. They did not know what was happening elsewhere in the world. We call them in the silent hinterland because they cannot be contacted. It is unthinkable that they want to know the difficulties that are happening in other parts of the world. When I visited a factory in East Germany, I realized that it was essentially a museum: huge production equipment, old ways of working. They produce things that customers don't want because they don't have access to consumers and don't know what consumers want. In the end, 10 years later, the original 20,000 employees became 500. This is the power of knowledge. Therefore, as the most critical driving factor for future development, the focus of management has become the development of management knowledge-based talents, rather than finding people to do the repetitive work on the assembly line. So the core of the problem becomes, as a leader, how do you need to help the development of knowledge-based talent.
2. Digitization
The reserves of knowledge are infinite. Many people know Moore's Law. Mr. Moore founded this law in 1965, saying that the storage density of computers doubled every two years, and later found that it can double every 18 months. And according to experts, this law will accompany us for at least 10 to 50 years, and the power of the computer will double every 18 months. Can you imagine what you will be able to calculate, discover, or use to see the reality? Interestingly, a recent Stanford professor said: "We need to remember that we are now in the second half of the growth of the board index." Everyone knows the classic story, the king asks what kind of reward the wise man wants, and the wise man replies that hope Put 1 grain of rice in the first grid, 2 capsules in the second grid, 4 capsules in the third grid, and so on. Each grid is twice as large as the previous grid, and finally rewards the rice on the board. Finally, the king found that he could not complete this wish, because the number of meters later increased sharply and became an astronomical figure. Then the expert's famous saying: "Our digital process is about to enter the second half of the chessboard growth." And this process will be faster and faster.
Corresponding to this is the slow adaptation process in the digital age. There is a big difference between people who know how to use technology and people who don't understand. You can make a difference in the digital age, but personal privacy and security issues are obviously more important, and we can't solve the social crimes that come with it. A year ago, the German Federal Chancellery found that the Prime Minister’s mobile phone was attacked by the US National Security Bureau. This was a big event, and we witnessed his occurrence. Maybe you feel normal, but I can't believe that a friend in the telecommunications industry told me, "Do you know how I track you?" He said: "As long as you carry a mobile phone for a day, I can tell who and You contacted, where did you go, and who you went to see. Because they also carry mobile phones and sometimes take photos." I feel very nervous, and there are many things we don't know about our privacy. Therefore, cautiousness is still essential for the rapid development of the digital age.
3. Virtualization
There have been many recent discussions about deflation that Europeans are worried about. If we use accounting standards to measure, Europe is deflation, but if we study the construction of knowledge in depth, how do we calculate this work? Is this knowledge an asset? Our assets in the general sense are material and can be touched. What about the assets in people's minds? This is hard to calculate. Virtualization then emerged and changed the situation. From a macro perspective, the establishment of institutional rules and social relations, as well as the development of economic supply and demand laws, are rapidly changing due to virtualization. Realistic products are turning into virtual design, finance and securities. First of all, the design of products and services is becoming more and more important today, and the cost of design is very high. How to measure it and how to price the design has become a problem worthy of attention. Securitization is a right to dispose of assets, such as a car parked outside, can be sold, or used to lend. This has created a lot of things into collateral, rather than simple commodities, creating new space for financial and securities businesses. Therefore, textbooks need to be rewritten, and hundreds of professors may need to be hired in the next 25 years to solve the new problems created by virtualization.
4. Flatten
In Germany, we like the boundaries of organizational management. You are responsible for this and I am responsible for other things, but we find that the task itself is playing a dominant role because it spans the boundaries of multiple organizations. Therefore, the flat management mode is better than the pyramidal stable structure. In the past, you can describe how it looks based on a company's management structure. A long time ago, when we were working at McKinsey, we designed this organizational structure: Who should you report to, who are your subordinates? But now we find that such an organization can't play any role, we need a flat structure. In McKinsey's flat management model, our consultants are divided into teams, each of which will be assigned to other project teams after the project is completed. Although I have some influence in Germany and Europe, and I was one of the three people responsible for McKinsey's global business, I don't have a subordinate department, only two assistants, which is considered a flat case. Another example was discovered by Steve, a SAP company that was recently visited in Germany. The situation is similar. Steve believes that the most important thing is that people work together in groups and integrate into the atmosphere. Especially when doing software engineering, you need to integrate into the atmosphere of the team, know how technology is implemented, how to transform one thing into another, how to overcome the problem, how to use computer to simulate the model. In this atmosphere people will have many ideas, and everyone will become the real source of innovation.
You can't believe that a young German team can print T-shirts, shoe boxes and many other things with 3D technology. They were listed in New York last year and now have a market capitalization of 3 billion euros. This once again explains our philosophy. Adidas used to be a completely German company. Every product is manufactured in China and sold all over the world. Now they only manufacture 4% in China. Others are manufactured and sold all over the country, becoming a completely global company. When you go there, you will feel a university. You can see the all-round flat structure of suppliers, consumers, and logistics. This is not the architecture I learned at McKinsey a long time ago, but the digital age and the future. Development model.
5. Networking
At the micro level, small companies have the advantage of being able to build an external network of cooperation. Of course, this also has the opposite, that is, its mass and connection become its weakness. The bigger the company, the more it can overcome the problem through the company's internal network organization. In fact, there are indeed many large companies that break their own patterns and enter the ranks of network management. This means that at the micro level, all employees, consumers, and suppliers work in an interactive manner. The higher the degree of networked Unicom office, the more value it can create. The outstanding team pays more attention to the construction of the management organization than before, establishes a networked company, and cooperates in the production of products. The expansion of the enterprise also requires a close connection between consumers and suppliers through the network on a daily basis. In the end, Internet companies will become virtual connections to other companies.
6. Go to the intermediary
We will look down on the intermediary function and the intermediaries will gradually disappear. Technology connects suppliers and consumers directly, while different connections create different values. We may find that in today's world we no longer need banks, and we no longer need insurance intermediaries. The functions of intermediaries are about to disappear or change in all aspects, and supply patterns will be formed. There are too many business models, and the intermediary is the agent who has earned all the money. Although I have been a professional football player, I have never understood some things because athletes are training hard every day. On average, if they earn 3 million, the agent in the middle drinks in his office. Coffee earns 15%-20% of it. They will say to the athletes: "Mr. Athlete, if you go to the Arthur Bella Club, you will become an idol player because I know their captain." But the next day he will call again, "No, you still There are three years of contracts." The player will say: "I don't care about the contract. The coach here is too bad, and the teammates are not good. I want to go to the team you said." After four weeks, the player changed the team, acting. In this business, you can earn 20%. So from the transfer of the stars, we can find out how profitable the middleman is, but in the future, the player is actually smart enough that he can make his own choices, so in the digital age, the intermediary will gradually disappear.
7. Cross-border
The dominant factor in business development, especially in the development of the service industry, is the accumulation of experience and data, but in the new era, emerging companies are completing this accumulation at a faster rate. For example, Google, which has created a new era of multimedia platforms, it is important to control the whole situation if you have computer technology, communication and content. At this time, for Google, tomorrow can become an insurance company, why not? Because Google has much more data than insurance companies. Or you can become a bank, you can do a lot of things, you can gather knowledge in any way, and the company's boundaries become more ambiguous than ever.
8. The basis of innovation
The new economy is innovating on the basis of information technology. The conceptualization and creativity of human beings are the most important assets in the industrial chain. A classic example from Germany can explain how people ignore this. Basically, all German banks have considered IT-related work to be a big problem in the past few years and are therefore reluctant to handle it themselves. Outsourcing IT-related work to Accenture or Deloitte, etc., so the entire IT department has undergone a big change. In fact, this is very irrational, because we know that many innovations are born from the IT department, if these people are not Within the organization and management, but outsourcing, it is as if the logistics company outsourced its own driver, then it is impossible to know what is happening in this era.
Innovation comes from information technology, creating an environment that allows and encourages innovation is the biggest challenge for society. Obviously, Europe has a lot of headaches for several issues, such as Google, which controls 90% of German search requests; Facebook, which has a market share of 60%-70%, and Amazon controls 60% of the market. There are Twitter accounts for 60% of the market. So some people will say, "It’s not fair, these Americans control us from all sides and ultimately control our economy." So the question is, if you give your knowledge of information technology to others, give the foundation of your innovation. Other people, there is nothing to complain about.
9. Mass customization
In this era of industrialization, products are the key, and in the era of intelligent networks, mass consumption is the key. The difference between supply and demand between producers and consumers is overlapping. Each consumer can make different demands, need special products and services, and even make their own products, such as custom-made wedding dresses. The wedding dress designed by the individual can be shipped to Europe and designed on the basis of this design, so that anyone can have their own wedding dress. This is not only feasible but also of great significance to the customer, as the president of Adidas does the same. He designs the sneakers according to the user's foot shape, strength and movement, which makes the distance between the producer and the consumer. Smaller and smaller, consumers will talk directly to producers. Each has a number of different sizes to enhance consumer choice in more dimensions. All of this can only be achieved by fully connecting the consumer Internet to the internal network of the company's operational production.
10. Speed
Consumers are more informed than ever. Consumers need extraordinary service, and the gap between demand and supply is dramatically reduced. Another wonderful example comes from one of my clients, Carlstedt, who owns a department store across Germany. The ordering process for this company is: A staff member in a city in the south found heavy snow in the city, so he contacted The people at the Hockenheim headquarters said that they needed gloves, hats, scarves and other winter supplies. The headquarters were supplied by 25 branches in three snow-stricken cities in the south, but after the goods were delivered to the transit center, the people in the transit center Say: "Let's check if there is snow in other parts of Germany." When the feedback came back, it was past the snow season, but some areas may snow, so they were delayed. Around the time, when the goods were delivered, it was already snowing in April and May. But another Spanish clothing brand, ZARA, took only three weeks from design to sale in the store. As a result, Carlstedt went bankrupt and liquidated, and ZARA, a company that has been established for a few years, has already valued 180 billion euros. ZARA did the shortest possible time difference between ordering and selling, because for them, 5 months was too long.
When I went back to the consulting team again, I wanted to ask, "Is it a long time for the consulting company to solve the problem?" If we find the answer to the world, ask the survey agencies around the world, maybe ourselves. It takes a month to find the answer, but it is clear that the brain cells of the world can also be gathered to solve the problem. This is like two days after Christmas last year. The famous tennis player Jankovic and a Romanian prime minister came to me and said, "Herbert, you save Romania, Romania is going bankrupt, we need to Submit an application to the International Monetary Fund before the 15th, otherwise they will not give us money.†He said, “Please bring a team of consultants to take my plane back to Romania to help me solve the problem.†I spent 24 Five hours to find five consultants from different countries, flew to Romania, worked madly for two weeks, and applied to the Central Bank, eventually they took materials to Washington, and finally obtained the International Monetary Fund. This kind of thing we don't do every day, but a good example is that the consulting company can also bring together the most intelligent minds in the shortest possible time to solve an impossible task.
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