Domestic large aircraft C919 today off the line orders over 500

Editor's note: "The R&D and manufacturing capabilities of large passenger aircraft are an important indicator of a country's aviation level and an important indicator of the overall strength of a country. Manufacturing large aircraft carries the aviation dreams of several generations of Chinese." - Xi Jinping

On November 2, 2015, COMAC will hold a grand ceremony for the first off-line of China's large aircraft in Shanghai, officially announcing that China can independently produce large passenger aircraft, which marks the development of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry to a new height, a new The aviation industry has begun, and this is a historic breakthrough.

Zhao Yining, the chief reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald, went to Shanghai three times to conduct comprehensive and in-depth interviews, from Jin Zhuanglong, Chairman of China Commercial Aircraft Co., Ltd., to C919 Deputy Chief Designer, C929 Chief Designer Chen Yingchun, Yun 10 Designer Wu Xing World, to relevant decision-making experts, and related multi-supplier companies.

The 21st Century Business Herald uses six editions to interpret the significance and far-reaching impact of this major event.

Guide
In order to realize the dream of China's big plane, C919 has been waiting with us for nearly half a century. In order to create a large aircraft, China tried and explored again and again, and it was a few times. From the dismantling of China’s independent research and development, to the assembly of foreign national machine manufacturers, and even the joint design of the joint results, enduring the scars and unwillingness, carrying the regrets of generations, became courage and The source of strength. The "World Factory" finally gave itself an account of the big aircraft that was built by itself.

China's big aircraft C919 is about to unveil.

At this time, in the commercial assembly plant of Pudong, Pudong, the final dressing for the C919 code 101 aircraft was being carried out. In June 2015, the C919 entered the stage of installation of the airborne system, including the engine, flight control system, landing gear, etc., and the C919 quietly waited there while the parts waiting to be installed were completed and tested and checked for safety.

In order to realize the dream of China's big plane, C919 has been waiting with us for nearly half a century. In order to create a large aircraft, China tried and explored again and again, and it was a few times. From the dismantling of China’s independent research and development, to the assembly of foreign national machine manufacturers, and even the joint design of the joint results, enduring the scars and unwillingness, carrying the regrets of generations, became courage and The source of strength. The "World Factory" finally gave itself an account of the big aircraft that was built by itself.

Aviation manufacturing: short board made in China
In 2014, Premier Li Keqiang gave a story to the academicians of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. A foreign politician sold him a domestic aircraft and gave him a similar model of the aircraft as a gift. When he took over the model and turned it over, the bottom was written "Made in China", made in China! He said, "The models are made by us, but the big planes are sold to us. You think about how many aircraft models do we have to make for a big plane?! Made in China to jump to the middle and high end, What is it? By innovation, this is the fundamental way out for China’s development."

For more than half a century, China’s manufacturing industry has undergone a historic transformation. China has replaced the United States as the world’s number one industrial producer, ending the history of the United States’ leader of more than a century of industrial nations. According to the World Bank [microblogging] data, China's manufacturing value added accounted for 16.9% of the world's total in 2010, and in 2014 this figure rose to 25% of the world's share, a significant increase of 8 percentage points in the past four years. Today's China, the number of industrial products ranked first in the world has more than 220, the export value of manufactured products ranks first in the world, and the industrial output value and manufacturing output value are 1.23 times and 1.4 times that of the United States. Among the more than 220 industrial products, there are many dazzling data in the manufacturing industry:

·Automobile production exceeds 25% of total world production;
· Ship production accounts for 41.9% of the world total;
· Construction machinery production accounts for 43% of the world's total output;
· Computer production accounts for 68% of the world's total production;
· Mobile phone production exceeds 70% of total world production;
·Color TV production accounts for 50% of the world's total output;
· Refrigerator production accounts for 65% of the world's total output;
·Air conditioner production accounts for 80% of the world's total output
......

China has completed the manned spaceflight and space docking and the dragon into the sea; we have produced more than half of the world's steel; the response to modernization factors accounted for 22% of the world's total, ranking first in the world; the total length of China's high-speed railway has reached 1.8 Ten thousand kilometers, accounting for more than 60% of the world's total; the number of newly equipped fighters, warships and tanks ranks first in the world each year. However, we cannot produce large civil aircraft!

Up to now, there are only Boeing and Airbus aircrafts between the intercontinental and large civil aircraft. Why are the two major economies in the world, the United States and the European Union, capable of manufacturing large civil aircraft? A set of comparison numbers gives the answer to the question.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the US aerospace industry accounted for 0.73% of the total national economy in 2014, accounting for 7.82% of US exports; while China's aerospace industry accounts for only 0.05% of GDP, and exports account for 0.22%. %. According to statistics from China, the output value of China's civil aviation industry (excluding military industry) in 2013 was 207.84 billion yuan, calculated according to the average growth rate of 23.4% in 2011-2013, and was about 250 billion yuan in 2014. The proportion of AVIC's military and civilian products is about 4:6. According to this calculation, the output value of the entire aviation industry in 2014 was about 670 billion yuan, equivalent to 0.39% of GDP.

The output value of China's equipment manufacturing industry has exceeded 20 trillion yuan (6.318, 0.0000, 0.00%). The Chinese manufacturing industry is on the way from low-end to mid-to-high-end, but the development of the aerospace industry is so lagging behind? This stems from the difference between the development models of traditional steel and automobile industries. Aviation manufacturing industry is recognized as an industry with the highest technical level and technical barriers. It has the characteristics of high technology added value and low labor intensity. After 100 years of industry development, the survival of the capital is very large. Large company or industrial group.

In the past 30 years, while China has bought large quantities of aircraft, the dollars that are sent to Boeing and Airbus have not been counted. From the Boeing 737 to the Airbus A380, the catalogue price for each aircraft is between $50 million and $2.995 billion (Boeing 737 is $50 million, Boeing 787 is $2.25, and Airbus A380 is $295 million). By the end of 2014, China's major airlines had introduced more than 1,500 Boeing aircraft in total; by October 2014, Airbus had 1,000 aircraft in active service in China. In 2015, China ordered 45 Airbus A330 series aircraft (additional 30); recently signed and confirmed orders with Boeing for 300 Boeing single-aisle aircraft and wide-body aircraft. China has also become one of the largest overseas markets for two airlines to receive more than 1,000 aircraft. China ranks third in the world in terms of aircraft purchase market. After the United States and the European Union, it is the largest buyer outside Boeing and Airbus. The situation is determined to a considerable extent by the Asian market, especially the Chinese market.

In this game of aerospace manufacturing competition, either bravely enter the long-term monopoly market of the two manufacturers, or spend more money to buy aircraft. According to Airbus forecasts, the total number of new aircraft added in China will be 5,363 in the next 20 years, including 3,567 single-aisle aircraft, 1,477 dual-aisle aircraft, and 319 super-large aircraft. According to Boeing's estimates, Chinese airlines will need to purchase 2,300 aircraft worth 200 billion U.S. dollars in the next 20 years. The two major airlines have determined that China will become the largest buyer of long-range aircraft and regional aircraft. A $150 million Boeing 747 will bring Boeing [microblogging] a profit of $30 million.

High-level strong voice: China makes its own big plane
In May 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping came to China Commercial Aircraft. As the country’s top decision-maker, the first time it made the clearest decision on China’s large-scale aircraft, he said: “If we want to be a strong country, we must get the equipment manufacturing up, get the big plane up, take the action, Iconic role. China is the largest aircraft market. In the past, some people said that it is better to buy and buy than to rent. This logic should be reversed, and it will cost more money to develop and manufacture its own big plane!"

People who do market analysis in civil aircraft circles have been concerned about China's economic trends, with particular attention to the disturbance of China's relations with the United States and the European Union, because both are related to aircraft orders and prices. In the eyes of the two major aviation giants, China’s decision to buy a plane is sometimes out of market and commerce, but often considers buying a plane as a bargaining chip for balancing international relations and trade deficits. But China’s decision to build its own single-aisle aircraft is undoubtedly the worst result.

As soon as China began to build its own large aircraft (including transport planes), Western public opinion began to ridicule. When China pushed the new 60 (MA60) 50-seat twin-engine turboprop regional airliner in 1999, it was “extremely dangerous” by the Western media; Yun-12 did not escape the similar fate, and they even named the aircraft. Death trap"; McDonnell Douglas even confessed in Fortune magazine that if the aircraft is not used, the US aircraft will not enter China. The C919 is derogated and the most influential aviation weekly in the aviation industry. According to the article, “China Commercial Aircraft Engineers, Middle Managers and Managers have no experience in manufacturing commercial aircraft at all”, asserting that “there is almost no hope that China Commercial Aircraft will send the mid-range commercial aircraft C919 to heaven”, claiming to China In eight years, an aircraft like the 737 will be built. The author said, "Climb the C919 to Chengdu or Shanghai at the Beijing Capital International Airport. I don't believe I can live that day."

The two giant manufacturers pay special attention to the C919, and their heavyweights have long guessed that China will build large aircraft sooner or later. Although the cost of developing a model aircraft is huge, this decision comes from the highest level in China and will eventually be achieved and is likely to succeed. They also believe that only the group of representatives of the national will (referring to China Commercial Aircraft) can create success, which is what they value most.

When China’s “National Medium- and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan” was released and the large aircraft project became one of the 16 major projects, these magnitudes knew that the C919 was not just an aircraft, but behind it was China’s long-term strategic interests. China not only hopes to become the second largest economy recognized by the international community, but also hopes that the international community recognizes itself as the engine of technological innovation. To do this, China needs to prove its ability to own any industrial products made in China, especially large aircraft, which is related to the honor of a country. Former Boeing CEO said: "I don't think China has technical obstacles that can't be overcome. They have sent astronauts to space twice, and some of the world's best aerodynamics are Chinese." It is a more ambitious story.

In this way, the C919 set off in the voice of doubt. Although the information from COMAC indicates that they are determined to become the world's third largest manufacturer of large passenger aircraft, the C919 name can be seen to become the will of the world aircraft market ABC along with Airbus Boeing. Airbus has the English letter "A". "Airbus", Boeing is "B" (Boeing), "C" comes from the first letter of English in China and the manufacturer (COMAC). But objectively speaking, the C919 is the second large-scale civil aircraft designed independently by China after the 10th. For the global civil aviation aircraft manufacturing industry, it is not to fill the gap in the development of medium-sized and narrow-body passenger aircraft, but to share the market segments. The demand for the most growth models.

Huangpi Baixin: Is it self-developed?
The positioning of the model development of the C919 project is “independent development, international cooperation, and international standards”. Some people in China questioned that C919 is a "yellow skin white heart", saying that China only designed the drawings and made a case. The key systems of the aircraft, including the engine and the avionics system, were purchased from other countries, and concluded that: It is the assembly of goods and boasted into independent research and development. Compared with Yun 8 and Yun 10, there is nothing to be proud of.

Let's start with the "shell." The body consists of a large part of the nose, fuselage, wing and tail. The wing components are called "the soul of the aircraft" by the British aircraft manufacturer. It is the wing of the aircraft that determines the take-off weight of the aircraft and the operation of the aircraft. Efficiency and economy. If Boeing Airbus previously used Russia and Japan to produce wings for business jets, then China is now catching up.

Chen Yingchun, deputy chief designer of C919 and member of the Standing Committee of China Commercial Aircraft Science and Technology Commission, said: The two decisive factors determining the performance of the aircraft are the aerodynamic lift-to-drag ratio (aerodynamic efficiency) and the weight of the aircraft. In the design stage, our target is the C919 machine. The weight of the wing is beyond the level of Boeing, and the aerodynamic efficiency is to reach the level of Airbus. A team of 100 experts from China's aircraft aerodynamics team has designed a total of 500 airfoils for the C919. The wing currently used on the C919-101 is a representative of several rounds of structural testing, in many countries in Europe and America. The wind tunnel test results have been highly evaluated by international counterparts, and several important indicators of acoustic resistance ratio, navigation characteristics and stall characteristics have surpassed competitive models.

In order to reduce the weight and reduce fuel consumption, the C919 uses composite materials and aluminum-lithium alloys in 600 parts. The composite material accounts for 20% of the weight of the aircraft structure, and the composite material used for the wing, titanium alloy, accounts for about 10%. The competitive models (B737 and A3200) accounted for far less than the C919. The C919 is designed from the nose, the wing to the tail, and the engine.

When the 2006 21st Century Business Herald reporter visited Boeing, Boroy Civil Aviation Group Vice President Caroline Covey said: About 65% of Boeing aircraft parts are purchased outside Boeing, 777 or 767. The entire fuselage of the aircraft was built in different factories in Japan. Some engines were made in France. Most of the flight control, leading edge devices, electrical and hydraulic systems were produced in North America. This is the mainstream “main manufacturer-supply model” of current aircraft manufacturers, in order to share project development costs and risks.

She also told 21st Century Business Herald that a complete Boeing 747 aircraft would be tightly assembled from 4.5 million parts, bringing together the various components at the same time, from all over the world and assembling into aircraft. Making airplanes more difficult to fly. If people can assemble the purchased parts and let it fly, there won't be only two big aircraft manufacturers in the world. She particularly stressed: What is the core competitiveness of Boeing? That is, we have the ability to integrate, including the integration of technology, design and “main supply mode” innovation. This is what Boeing has but it is difficult for others to copy and cannot copy.

China Commercial Aircraft also adopted the “main supply mode”. Objectively speaking, there is a fundamental difference between China Commercial Aircraft and Boeing adopting the “main supply mode”. Boeing has the ability to produce all its own accessories, while COMAC does not master most of the machines. The technology of carrying equipment, this is where our gap lies. Boeing will usher in a history of 100 next year, and Airbus will have 45 years, and China Commercial Aircraft is only 7 years old. However, the two aircraft manufacturing companies have never established 16 joint ventures for the development of a model aircraft, and the purpose of establishing a joint venture company is to accelerate learning and localization as soon as possible.

Even if all the airborne equipment of the 101 aircraft are imported, including the engine, avionics, flight control and landing gear, the purchase contract amount is 17 million US dollars, compared with the catalog price of 50 million US dollars, the total value of these components. It is much more complicated than the value of the aircraft. We used to have a case of a process control switch. Once the Chinese can develop the 04 machine, the country that divides the "seven countries and eight systems" in the Chinese market can no longer sell at a high price, from 250 dollars to 5 dollars, the import substitution effect. Direct response to price changes. People want to give China COM and C919 time!

In this regard, Peking University [microblogging] Professor Lu Feng, who participated in the special demonstration of large aircraft and had an important influence on decision-making, told reporters: "We have not only thrown away an aircraft, but with a fundamental The key to sex is that China has lost its platform for research and development of civilian passenger aircraft products. As a result, the gap between China's technological capabilities and the technological capabilities of the United States and Europe has widened over the past two decades. This widening gap actually creates an ever-increasing threshold for China to enter the civil aircraft field. China’s big aircraft project has been won by generations, including the dedication and sacrifice of the “Yun Shi” generation. Therefore, although COMAC is to become a company that is commercially successful, it is more important to assume the trust of a nation. Even if we have decades of gaps with the advanced level, if we insist on doing 200 years, then the gap in these decades is nothing. "

Post-production: two major competitors take the lead in changing "heart"
The industry generally believes that it is better for large-scale civil aircraft to have 3-4 manufacturers to participate, which is more beneficial to operators. However, Boeing and Airbus, which are in a monopoly position, do not want to have a third competitor. The emergence of China’s C919 has in fact not only caused some of Boeing’s and Airbus’s cakes to fall on the plates of China’s commercial aircraft. The aviation industry is an important cornerstone of the two major economies in Europe and the United States, and any challenge to this wealth is considered a provocation. The counterattack was earlier than we expected.

In 2010, the C919 prototype debuted at the Zhuhai Air Show. The two aircraft manufacturers saw the C919's design far more than the 737 and A320, because they saw that the C919 model is superior to the 737 and A320 in many ways. For example, the C919 airborne new generation engine LEAP-X1C, the composite material used in the fuselage, will have an advantage over the B737 and A320. In particular, aircraft weight loss is 14%, drag reduction is 5%, noise reduction is 10 decibels, pollution emissions are reduced by 50%, and fuel consumption is reduced by 12%-15%.

After that, the two companies immediately responded by replacing the engines for the two old models in a short period of time, and Boeing chose the same engine as the C919. Industry experts told reporters that Boeing and Airbus did not change the fuselage and the wing because the sunk cost was too high. If the engine, fuselage and wing were changed, it would cost about 10 billion US dollars. At that time, they could not get the money. In December 2010, Airbus announced that it would use the $1 billion for the LEAP-X1C engine. The A320's range increased to 950 kilometers, saving 15% of fuel. The forward-looking design of China's large aircraft design has become an important driving force for the two engines.

On August 31, 2011, Boeing announced that it will equip the Boeing 737 with a new fuel-efficient engine, the Leap-1B, which is produced by CFM, a joint venture between GE and the French Safran Group. The Boeing 737 with the new engine was named "MAX" and was taken from the English word maximum, meaning optimization. “MAX” is 12% more fuel efficient than existing Boeing 737 models. Boeing promises that the 737MAX aircraft will begin delivery in 2017.

Almost at the same time, Airbus launched the A320neo aircraft (NEO is the abbreviation of the English New Engine Option, the new engine option), the A320neo series aircraft is an improved model of the current A320 series aircraft, equipped with a new efficient engine and shark fin wing. By 2020, the single-seat fuel efficiency of the Airbus A320neo will be 20% higher than the current A320 series. On September 25, 2014, the A320neo aircraft successfully completed its first flight and is scheduled to begin delivery in 2015.

Objectively speaking, the two airlines are not on the rise to replace the engine. Boeing and Airbus have long judged that the next highly competitive field will be the single-aisle aircraft market, which is also planning to build new aircraft to replace the existing models 737 and A320, and plans to use many new technologies in the 737. And on the A320. For a long time, both have been paying attention to competitors – Brazilian Airlines and Bombardier of Canada. Do they develop models with more than 125 passengers? This is like participating in a dragon boat race, always worrying about whether the nearby ship will surpass itself. Unexpectedly, China Commercial Aircraft was born because most of the growth in the single-aisle aircraft market came from China's demand.

In the aircraft manufacturing industry, an order is likely to influence the sales of an aircraft manufacturer in a certain field, so the industry companies are very competitive in the acquisition of orders. An airline’s intention to buy three or four planes will cause Airbus and Boeing to fight for your life. When the C919 was not off the assembly line, it successively obtained the commitment and confirmed orders of 517 aircraft. Previously, "Boeing can draw a plane on paper to sell it", and now, a new entrant - China Commercial Flying is replicating the legend.

At present, Boeing's Renton plant is expanding its assembly plant. They plan to increase the current production of 42 737 aircraft to 52 units per month from 2018. In the future, it is possible to further increase production capacity to 60 units per month. aircraft. The Airbus A320 also increased its production capacity, and plans to increase from the current 42 aircraft per month to 46 in 2016. The Boeing 737 MAX has received 2,724 orders, and the Airbus A320 has received 2,934 orders and will begin delivery in 2016.

Jim McNerney, the chairman of the Boeing Company, told the Wall Street Journal on September 24, "The Chinese manufacturers want to overcome the global competition in the aircraft manufacturing industry. ". What he said may be true, but the Chinese competitor has already made his opponents restless.

Ten years: entering the aviation manufacturing powerhouse
The aviation industry is one of the few industries that have not developed in tandem with the national economy since China's reform and opening up. Generally speaking, an industry that accounts for four percentage points of GDP can be called a pillar industry. For a big manufacturing country, China's aerospace industry cannot even be an important industry, let alone a new economic growth point.

why? The characteristics of the general aviation manufacturing industry have determined that the road to scale expansion is very difficult. The first is that general aviation cannot promote local economic development through economies of scale, and there is basically no possibility of mobilizing inputs from the provincial level. Faced with the Chinese auto market with an annual output of more than 22 million units, the introduction of a large auto company can bring hundreds of thousands of units of production and sales, tens of billions of output value and hundreds of thousands of employment. The general aviation manufacturing enterprises have a small output value, and an aircraft manufacturing enterprise with an annual delivery capacity of 450 aircraft has an output value of about 15 billion yuan and employs about 10,000 people. In addition, the aviation industry's production model has a low profit margin. According to the operating experience of a large domestic assembly and export enterprise, the annual gross profit margin is only 2%, and the contribution rate to local taxation is relatively low. So in the past few years, apart from the aviation industry's own investment, there are few reasons for local investment.

However, if we look at the development of the aviation industry from the perspective of the state, we will find that the aviation industry has the characteristics of long industrial chain, wide radiation surface and strong joint effect. In this regard, Japan has conducted a case analysis of more than 500 technology diffusions, and found that 60% of the technology originated from the aviation industry. According to Japanese statistics, aviation products are the highest added value among various transportation products according to the value created by the weight of the product. If the ship's added value factor is 1, the car is 9 and the large aircraft is 800. The aircraft engine is 1400. The aviation industry covers almost all industrial categories including machinery, electronics, materials, metallurgy, instrumentation, and chemical industry. It involves hundreds of disciplines such as aerodynamics, ergonomics, systems engineering, and project management. Drive the high-end industrial and manufacturing levels of the entire country.

It is from the business opportunities in the field of general aviation that only the central government has made up its mind and invested so that the aviation industry can be upgraded to an important position beyond the automobile, shipbuilding and construction machinery. The manufacture of civil aircraft is the deployment of innovative industrial chain in China. The source. "Give us 10 years." The "Made in China 2025" report issued clear information and strived to use 10 years to move China from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power. One of the priorities of the mission is to “deploy the innovation chain around the industry chain and deploy the resource chain around the innovation chain”.

The first batch of domestic ARJ21 aircraft is expected to be delivered to Chengdu Airlines at the end of the year. It is a new type of turbofan regional aircraft developed by China in the middle and short voyages. Now C919 is about to go offline and is preparing for the first flight. There will be even more surprises in the future, according to Russian media reports. At present, COMAC is cooperating in Russia to develop a wide-body passenger aircraft. This aircraft comparable to the B787 and A350 is expected to achieve its first flight in the next decade.

In the next 20 years, China's aviation industry will achieve a historic leap, and the days of China's big planes flying in the sky are not far away.

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