The net import of coal in the first 10 months of this year was 217 million tons

Due to the fact that foreign coal prices are lower than domestic coal prices, coupled with low shipping prices, this year, China's coal imports have continued to increase substantially, and exports have been declining, resulting in explosive growth in net imports.

Statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission show that in the first 10 months of this year, the country’s net coal imports totaled 217 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. The data also shows that the increase in domestic coal consumption has fallen, with coal consumption in the coal-fired power industry falling more noticeably.

Treasurer Island analyst Zhang Zhibin told the First Financial Daily reporter that due to the sluggish international economic trend this year, coal demand has continued to be insufficient, and international coal prices have been falling all the way. Foreign coal companies are eyeing the huge Chinese market and the disparity in price advantage has caused imports. Coal has increased in volume for several consecutive months.

Great Wall Securities Research reported that as of November 8th, Australia BJ coal spot price was only 80.35 US dollars / ton, compared with the same period last month dropped by 3.3 US dollars / ton, the price fell to the lowest price level in the past three years. Convert the Australian BJ coal spot price to ***, plus Western Australia-Qingdao freight 9.141 US dollars / ton, imported coal price is 564 yuan / ton, deducted 10 yuan to 30 yuan / ton of the port miscellaneous fees, imported coal and Compared with the price of 635 yuan / ton of Shanxi high-grade coal with the same domestic heating value, it is still 41-61 yuan / ton cheaper, and the imported coal still has a price advantage.

Compared with the large increase in imports, China's coal exports have been showing a downward trend. Customs data show that from January to October this year, China's cumulative export of coal was 7.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38.9%; the cumulative amount of exports was 1,369.958 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 42.7%.

James O'Connell, Platts Global Coal Chief Editor, believes that on the one hand, three new coal producers, including the United States, want to sell their products to China this year, which lowers the price in the international coal market and causes international coal prices. The price is relatively low; on the other hand, the cost of freight is also relatively low, which has caused many utility companies, including power plants in China, to import coal from the United States and Colombian producers.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2011, US coal production was 1.1 billion tons and coal exports exceeded 107 million tons. It is estimated that the United States will export 125 million tons of coal this year, which will break the export of 113 million tons in 1981. Records, and most of its export coal flows to the Asian market. Among them, from January to June 2012, the United States exported 469.17 million tons of coal to China, an increase of 47.41% year-on-year.

“The proportion of coal-fired power generation in the entire power generation is declining, so objectively speaking, the United States does not need to use so much coal. From the perspective of US market demand, the United States does not believe that the market is Asia, but mainly Europe, South America, etc. However, in terms of the structure of coal production, the U.S. production rate is faster than that of Australia, including the freight factor, which makes U.S. exporters more unique in their competition for Asian markets,” said James O'Connell. .

Zhang Zhibin said that although from the current base point, the amount of coal exported to China by the United States is not large, and the impact on the domestic market is limited, but the United States will use shale gas instead of coal, which is even greater for China. Impact on the trend.

Ten years ago, the United States was still insignificant in the exploitation of shale gas, but now it accounts for about a quarter of the country's total natural gas extraction.

Zhuo Chuang, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang, said that shale gas's substitution for coal demand has reduced coal demand in the past two years by 20% year-on-year, and that the United States has shifted its production capacity to exports. The compound growth rate in the past five years has reached 24%. With the completion of the 100 million tons coal port in the western part of the country, its cheap coal in the west will be exported to East Asia, and its export potential is expected to further increase.

Zhang Zhibin said that the impact of a large increase in imported coal on the domestic coal market will become more and more serious, which will result in a sharp decrease in the profit rate of domestic coal companies. From this year's three quarterly reports, it can be seen that the cash flow of coal companies is already under greater pressure. . In addition, the decline in international coal prices has also caused large losses in the profits of overseas coal mines that were previously acquired by domestic coal companies. It is difficult to achieve the expected benefits.