Steel Morning Post: Steel enterprises increase sales of steel products to accelerate destocking

[Hot Spot Guide]

● Steel companies competing to promote sales of steel prices fear again as the steel market has not improved, the downstream steel traders into a survival crisis, steel companies are also forced to take more risks. At present, many steel companies have introduced preferential policies in the hope of stimulating sales. However, because the contradiction between supply and demand cannot be solved fundamentally, the “small favors and small benefits” of steel mills can hardly reverse the predicament of steel traders. What is even more worrisome is that crude steel production continues to linger at high levels and demand remains unsatisfactory. Under this circumstance, the promotion of steel companies is likely to further lower steel prices.

Interpretation: Problems that can be solved with money are not problems. The problem is that there is no money. This seemingly witty ridicule has written the bitterness of the steel-related companies this year. The long-term sluggish demand and tight funding have led many steel trade enterprises and individual iron and steel enterprise owners to start “walking”. Recently, one-way state-owned enterprise financing by a merchant in Fujian has been exposed by false warehouses. Shanghai’s SASAC has already The investigation of warehouse receipts and pledges was launched, and the financing difficulties of steel trading companies will be further increased in the later period. Fubao believes that the price reduction at this time of the steel mill is no different from the price war between Jingdong and Suning and Gome. It is a helpless move to keep market share. However, under the environment where the contradiction between supply and Instead, trade companies will continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude because they do not touch the bottom, leading to further declines in steel prices.

● Statistics show that the enthusiasm of iron ore procurement by major steel mills has dropped sharply. From August 7th to 13th, China's port iron ore stockpiles 25 ports were 98.59 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the end of the previous reporting period. The latest Chinese iron ore price index was 416.17 points, a decrease of 5.95% from the previous quarter. Since the beginning of this year, the price of imported iron ore has fallen steadily. The price of imported iron ore at the beginning of the year was approximately US$145.51/ton, and broke through the US$150 mark in May. However, the price of iron ore began to decline continuously thereafter. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average price of imported iron ore fell to US$121.61 per ton in the second week of August, down US$12.11/ton from the end of July, a decrease of 9.06%, which is the lowest level since October last year. China Steel Association expects that as the price of steel goes down, there is still room for further decline in the price of iron ore in the later period. At present, major steel mills in China have begun to reduce production, and the demand for iron ore and procurement enthusiasm have also been greatly reduced. The industry expects that as the steel mills stop production and overhaul, the port spot bidding price will gradually decrease, the ore transaction volume will continue to shrink rapidly, traders will mostly remain cautious and wait-and-see attitudes, and the iron ore port inventory needs to digest a long process.

Interpretation: Steel trading companies control the stock of steel, steel mills naturally also need to control the stock of raw materials. According to Fubao, the steel mills used to reserve 1-2 months of raw materials. However, in the past two years, most SMEs have adopted the policy of using with purchase, and most of the stocks of raw materials for reserves have dropped to 10-30 days. It is reported that yesterday's foreign mine tenders, a ship of 61% of Australia's PB powder ore final bid, also shows that the steel mill's cautious attitude toward raw material procurement. Fubao believes that it is normal for the enthusiasm of the steel mills to decline under the current market conditions, but let us not forget that international mines still have huge profits. Do not forget that they still have long-term contracts with many domestic companies, so we first What needs to be considered is not inventory digestion, but rising stocks.

【related news】

● Traffic investment in fixed assets fell 5.2% in the first 7 months of the previous year

On August 21, the Ministry of Transport issued the status of the transport economy in July 2012. From January to July, the scale of investment in fixed assets continued to decline. According to the data, from January to July, the total investment in fixed assets on highway waterways reached 683.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was narrowed by 1 percentage point from January to June, and 20.7 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. Among them, highways, inland rivers, and coastal construction completed investment of 59.28 billion yuan, 25.1 billion yuan, and 53.30 billion yuan, respectively, down by 6.2% and by 20.8% and 0.7% respectively. The eastern, central and western regions respectively completed investments of 248 billion yuan, 152 billion yuan, and 283.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, 14.3%, and 0.8%.

● Major projects to boost economic growth in emerging industries In order to reverse the downward trend of economic growth, a number of major projects with large investment scale and strong capability are expected to be approved. It is roughly estimated that the investment scale of coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas projects that have been included in the investment plan will reach 900 billion yuan. If we count coal-to-methanol and other coal-chemical projects, the investment in coal chemical projects within the planned future has exceeded trillions. yuan. Insiders pointed out that if these projects are fully implemented, the upstream and downstream related industries driven by the project will be equivalent to another micro-miniaturized investment of RMB 4 trillion, and its effect on steady growth is obvious. Looking at the investment projects approved by the NDRC this year, we can see that compared with 2009, the Development and Reform Commission has been cautious about the investment of projects, and some of the infrastructure and the investment capacity of the backward-developed departments are obviously limited. Since June, the National Development and Reform Commission has focused on the approval of a large number of wind power, hydropower, water conservancy, environmental protection, and public facilities management projects. Energy conservation and environmental protection is becoming a key investment area in the near future. At the same time, a new round of investment highlights opportunities for emerging industries, and industries such as electronic information, Internet of things, logistics, environmental protection, and emerging bio-pharmaceuticals are expected to receive more financial support. However, the debt risks of local governments still need to be vigilant.

● The central bank has started a 220 billion reverse repurchase, and the short-term RRR cuts are expected to set aside the market. Prior to this, the expectation that the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered in the short-term may be lost again. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on the morning of the 21st carried out an RMB 150 billion 7-day reverse repurchase and RMB 70 billion 14-day reverse repurchase operations on the open market, with a total of RMB 220 billion in one day’s operation. The scale of repurchase hit a record high. In this regard, the respondents yesterday to Nandu reporter analysis that the scale of reverse repurchase significantly enlarged, showing that the central bank to avoid the policy intensive introduction of the intention, so that the market in the short term the central bank is expected to further cut the possibility of deposit reserve rate will fall. In addition, it also implies that the current economic situation has not made the government level particularly pessimistic. However, if the European Central Bank cuts interest rates again in September, it will prompt the central bank to make a decision to cut interest rates in the context of the global economy.

[Summary]

On the 22nd, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.74 points, to close at 13,172.84 points, a decrease of 0.23%; Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.41 points to close at 3,073.67 points, or 0.21%; S&P 500 Index rose 0.34 points to close at 1,413.51 points, an increase of 0.02%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYEXEX) Commodity Exchange (COMEX) December gold prices fell $ 2.40 to close at $ 1,640.50 an ounce, a decrease of 0.2%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of light crude oil for delivery in October rose 42 cents to settle at $97.26 a barrel, or 0.4%. The US dollar index fell 0.44 to close at 81.46, a decrease of 0.54%. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures rose 10 US dollars to close at 7,595 US dollars, an increase of 0.13%.

【Market Analysis】

On the 22nd, the period of Lo 01 opened 3590, the main 3600 platform shocks in early trading, after a sharp decline in the afternoon, close to the market to reproduce the diving market, the lowest test to 3555 the day the highest 3611 to close 3557, fell 33% decline of 0.92%, the funds face empty , Volume slightly enlarged. The K-line at 5th day of the day and the negative line at the close of the day, the KDJ indicator divergence downwards, and the MACD indicator appeared in the green column and weakened in the short-term. The downturn in the spot market continued and steel prices have yet to bottom out. Keep short on the operation, and the bulls should not enter the market. The screw operation of the material period is weak and will have negative impact on the spot market.

[steel market dynamics]

● Ore: On the 22nd, the Platts 62% PB was reported at $108.75, down $3 from the previous working day. Port spot, this Tianjin port 63.5% printing ink 830-840 yuan / wet tons; Rizhao Port 62% PB powder ore 765-775 yuan / wet tons; Qingdao port 63.5% Brazilian coarse powder 775-785 yuan / wet tons; The spot market continued to tumble. For domestic mines, Tangshan 66% Fe fine powder wet basis ex-factory price of Zunhua is 800 yuan/ton, and Qian’an is 800-810 yuan/ton. The market was completely weak, and the import mines kept refreshing lows. This time, the individual bidding resources dropped by 5 US dollars. Under the panic mentality, no one of the steelmakers received orders, and the continued decline in domestic ore prices is also inevitable.

● Billet: On the 22nd, the Tangshan strip, sections and wire spirals continued to fall by 20-50. In addition, the tender price of the Yansteel billet at this time was lower than the market price of 35, and the market continued to see a bearish atmosphere. The transaction volume was light, and the billet fell afterwards at 20pm. . At present, Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglong, Kaiheng, Jianyuan and other ordinary carbon billet ex-factory price of tax 3030 yuan / ton, low alloy 3150 yuan / ton, the dealer naked price 2890, Changli tax to Tangshan 3050 tax.

● Coke: 22nd Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1350-1370 yuan / ton, Weifang secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1300-1320 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1340 yuan / ton , Linyi first-class metallurgical coke car plate tax price 1460-1490 yuan / ton, Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax-inclusive price 1400-1420 yuan / ton, Tianjin Port secondary metallurgical coke warehouse tax price 1520-1560 yuan / ton , Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1300-1320 yuan / ton, Yinchuan secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1380 yuan / ton, Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1300-1320 yuan / ton, Taiyuan secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price of 1300 yuan / ton, Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price 1250 yuan / ton, Guizhou secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1690 yuan / ton, Huaibei a metallurgical coke car Board tax price 1730 yuan / ton, coke prices temporarily stable, in some areas a slight improvement in shipments, but the downstream steel market is still weak, unable to form a support for the market, the downward pressure on the market outlook remains.

● Building materials: On the 22nd, the market price of Heshan Iron and Steel Secondary Screw in Beijing market was 3,440 yuan/ton, which was 10 yuan/ton lower than the previous day; the Shanghai market Zhongtian secondary screw 3580-3600 yuan/ton, which was higher than the previous It was flat on the day; the Guangzhou market's second-level large screw of Guangzhou Steel was 3730-3740 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the previous day.

● Sheets: On the 22nd, the closing price of the Shanghai hot market was 3470-3530 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was low. The closing price of the hot coil in the Tianjin market was 3430-3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day. Ton, Lecong hot market closing price of 3570-3580 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day down 10 yuan / ton.

[today's forecast]

● Building materials: Yesterday they fell steadily, with an overall decrease of around 10-30. In recent days, the continuous slumping of billets continued to hit new lows in the 3600 platform. The spot transaction was depressed, and the steel mills lowered their ex-factory prices in recent days. Although some markets lacked resources, it was difficult for the parties to stabilize steel prices, and late arrivals came. Funds received Narrow, the market outlook may still be down, the steel price is not bottomed, the current market price of Heshan Iron and Steel Secondary Screw is 3430 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day fell 10 yuan / ton; Shanghai market Zhongtian secondary screw 3580 -3,600 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day; Guangzhou, Guangzhou Iron and Steel Market Second-level large screw 3720-3730 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day fell 10 yuan / ton.

● Plates: In the market, the market opened higher yesterday morning, but there was no boost in market confidence. Most cities across the country maintained the pace of downward adjustment. However, the price reduction operation did not form a good stimulus to downstream purchases, and the lack of traders’ shipments remained unchanged. In the afternoon, the long-term reversed the decline, the business mood was unstable, the number of merchants that loosened the quotation increased, and the low-level resources increased frequently. It is expected that the national hot-turmoil will fluctuate. Shanghai market 5.5mm Shagang mainstream prices in the 3500-3520 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 5.5mm Tangshan mainstream quotes 3420-3440 yuan / ton; Lecong market 5.5mm Liuzhou mainstream quote 3570 yuan / ton.

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