The change of the time node does not hinder our courage to make great strides forward, but the automotive industry especially needs to speed up. Fast and slow is always a dialectical opposition and unity.
“China considers Delaying High-Tech 'Made in China 2025' Plans!â€
Bloomberg once again threw a blockbuster. Naturally, the source is still a somewhat annoying routine – “two anonymous people who know the inside storyâ€.
The article seems to have some title party. According to the source, the Chinese government is considering delaying the goal of “part of the field†in China's manufacturing 2025 plan by 10 years, that is, around 2035. According to the article, the high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, alternative energy, and aerospace in "Made in China 2025" are the main targets of the Trump trade war. The Chinese side is trying to ease the tension of trade war with the US.
The awkward Bloomberg did not straighten out that "Made in China 2025 is slowing down, it is a concession for the United States in the trade war", but the background description, the spring and autumn brushwork is self-evident.
Putting aside the suggestive display and face-to-face considerations, the topics that are of interest to the in-depth observers are “China will partially suspend the 2025 planâ€, “Which areas may need to be suspendedâ€, and “the slowdown and pace of the targetâ€. Speed ​​up."
If it is only a change in the time node, it does not hinder our courage to make great strides forward, and the firm belief in our hearts. As the jewel in the crown of the industry, the Chinese auto industry needs to speed up the catch in the manufacturing industry, which proves the dialectical connection between fast and slow.
Since ancient times, if the big country is cooking, the pace of the times will be faster, and the innermost decision-making will require the ancient wells to have no waves, so that time will be static, thus revealing all things.
Made in China, the core goal is not shaken
The Sino-US trade war will be the most important news event in all fields in the world in 2018. This is not only a violent collision between the first two economies, but also a whirlpool that spreads to Europe, Japan, South Korea and other major countries in the world, and also declares that the global pattern is slowly mutating from the perspective of technology to political economy.
This "number one incident" is precisely the sword that refers to the "Made in China 2025" plan that came out three years ago. In March of this year, the US Trade Representative Office listed the top ten industries such as the new generation of information technology, high-end equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, new materials, and bio-medicine highlighted in “Made in China 2025†and expressed concern.
"China has indicated that it wants to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in high-tech and achieve international leading position. If China is willing to pay it, it will be unfavorable to the United States." The US trade representative and hawkish typical Wright Heze said that these innovative technologies are covered in " Made in China 2025" plan. According to the US's reasons, while developing high-tech, China has obtained US-based technology through illegal channels, which has damaged US intellectual property rights and threatened local jobs.
Therefore, we can see the first round of the trade war. The US products targeted by the Chinese are mainly soybeans and other agricultural products, while the United States is aimed at China's high-tech products. As in the traditional concept, the labels of China's developing countries and the number one developed country in the United States are completely reversed in the ring.
When the "Made in China 2025" program on May 19, 2015 announced that the ancient country of the East began to hit the highest peak of humanity, under the guidance of "equipment manufacturing standardization and quality improvement plan", China's artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, hypersonic vehicles, Quantum communication technology and other fields are at the forefront of the world. As the traditional hegemony that leads the world for decades, anxiety can be imagined.
The transition period between the old and new faucets is worried about China's rise and threatens the status and interests of the United States. This is the fundamental driving force for Trump to launch a trade war. Details such as intellectual property rights and information theft are in the face of this macroscopic factor.
So, will China make concessions on the 2025 plan?
In fact, the Wall Street Journal mentioned the change of “Made in China 2025†earlier than Bloomberg. On the 12th, the article stated that the Chinese government intends to release more authority to foreign companies and draft a new plan to replace “Made in China 2025â€. .
But so far, the "alternatives" are still only "informed disclosure" and "rumors" in the foreign media. According to "Daily Car", the Chinese government has not yet finalized whether to modify the "Made in China 2025" plan. Bloomberg also admitted that it is unclear whether China's ideas have been exchanged with Trump.
From an overseas standpoint, the development plan that has been downgraded may help China to alleviate the Trump administration's concerns about Chinese subsidies and US intellectual property rights. However, the foreign media quoted the insider's speculation that the White House did not believe that China would easily modify the plan in essence, and it is likely that it would only redefine the name and change the soup.
From the standpoint of China, we must first confirm a basic understanding: If we change from "Made in China 2025" to "Made in China 2025+2035", it does not mean retreating for a trade war, but it should be a rational development guiding principle.
What is the core content of “Made in China 2025â€? Adhere to the basic policy of “innovation-driven, quality-first, green development, structural optimization, and talent-orientedâ€, adhere to “market-led, government-led, based on the current, long-term perspective, overall promotion, key breakthroughs, independent development, open cooperation†The basic principle is to achieve the strategic goal of manufacturing a strong country through “three stepsâ€: the first step is to enter the ranks of manufacturing powers by 2025; the second step, by 2035, China’s manufacturing industry will reach the middle level of the world’s manufacturing powers; In the 100 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the comprehensive strength has entered the forefront of the world's manufacturing power.
That is to say, 2035 was originally the second step in the "Made in China 2025" plan. In the targets of major segments, the distribution of nodes is bound to be distributed from 2015 to 2049, and the importance of “interim goals†is even more in the 2025 to 2035 range. If some of the objectives of the fine-grained field are adjusted, or the goal of 2035 is chosen to be emphasized, to reduce the impression of oppression caused by the United States, it is fully in line with China’s demand for “stable and fastâ€.
"Made in China 2025", from the early days of the world, is an ambitious plan covering 2015-2050. Naturally, it is also included as an important node in 2035. Regardless of the adjustments in the future, the core goal is not to waver.
Car: slow down, but also need to speed up
Judging from the objective neutrality and non-arrogance, China's manufacturing industry is in a special state, with favorable conditions and unfavorable conditions coexisting.
In terms of advantages: volume first, the manufacturing output value of the manufacturing industry reached 2.6 times that of the United States in 2017; the coverage is the most comprehensive. Today, China's manufacturing industry covers 24 industry groups and 71 industries involved in the manufacturing industry in the international standard industry. 137 sub-sectors have become one of the most complete countries in the global manufacturing system; rapid progress, and even export-oriented products have changed from light industrial low-tech products such as “socksâ€, which were self-deprecating by the Chinese people, to electromechanical products with technical content...
Unfavorable shortcomings are also very obvious: many basic disciplines are still not developed enough, and high-tech applications still lag behind advanced countries, and education and talent training systems, manufacturing experience accumulation and standard systems are all significantly different from those of Zhuqiang.
In "Frankfurt Night, China Dawn", the author used this analogy: Europe, the United States and Japan and other Western developed countries slowly descended from the 9th floor to the 7th floor, while China climbed from the 3rd floor to the 5th floor. In terms of advanced nature, there are still some shortcomings, but the momentum is better than the competition.
Fortunately, the passenger car industry is likened to the crown jewel in the manufacturing industry, but it is a relatively backward international position in China's manufacturing industry. If horizontally contrasted, China Aerospace is already developing LEO low-rail load 100-ton heavy rocket Long March 9, military ballistic missiles and technologies such as scramjets in the world's top three sequences; aviation industry makes China the second to obtain stealth fighters The country's self-developed military civilian large aircraft have been put into use; the ship industry, whether it is the global top three of the civilian ship manufacturing capacity (China, Japan and South Korea), can still take the lead in taking 10,000-ton dual-band active phased array fire control radar The destroyer 055 has confirmed the leading strength.
Even in neighboring industries such as heavy commercial vehicles and construction machinery, China is in a relatively good position. So what about passenger cars? It is a pity that even with the complete vehicle platform and powertrain, there are very few Chinese independent car companies that can meet purely forward development requirements. Many of the vehicle platform structures that claim to be being developed in the past are just copying the Japanese and Korean platforms and getting through themselves. Not only Changan, Great Wall and other independent front-runners have no real forward platform, even Geely's CMA, BMA and other architectures, but also the old platform of FE plus the reconstructed electrical architecture - nevertheless, this is already Second only to Chery's strongest independent passenger car platform research and development capabilities, other strengths are weaker than the car brands' own brands are not to mention.
The powertrain is similar. Although most of the engines of the Chinese automakers are still relying on the Mitsubishi 4G series, the engines of China's autonomous automakers are still “semi-reverse†foreign-brand engines, such as the Volkswagen second-generation EA888. At the same time as the sales share is high, the weakness of the overall technical strength limits the resistance of autonomous car companies to stand firm in the market cold.
Under the background of the possible adjustment of “Made in China 2025â€, how should the automobile industry move with the macro trend? Fast is slow, slow is fast, goal is slowed down, progress is accelerated, and the combination of fast and slow will become the development of the automotive field.
In the early years of the country, it was predicted that China would sell more than 40 million vehicles per year in the future. This misjudgment has become one of the important reasons for the current overcapacity. China has also hoped that electric vehicles will “overtakeâ€. In 2009, the “Automobile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan†proposed the production capacity of 500,000 new energy vehicles within three years. Although the growth rate of new energy is amazing now, in 2012. The old goal has already jumped.
"If you want to speed up, you can't reach it." This is the philosophy that has never changed. The rise of any performance is inseparable from the deep foundation of the foundation. Take Toyota, one of the world's most powerful car companies, as an example. After encountering “ten million spells†and “pedal doorsâ€, Toyota slowed down the pace of expansion, and has not expanded its production capacity globally for four consecutive years. To build a TNGA Fengchao architecture. The significance of the new architecture goes beyond the ordinary vehicle platform and runs through every aspect of the company system, research and development, and manufacturing. So we can see that the new cars of the eight generations of Camry, C-HR/Zhuze are so powerful, and they are triumphant in the case of the frozen environment of China and the United States, and they are attacking the city for Toyota.
Similarly, Volkswagen, General Motors and other giants are also shrinking and slowing down. The former announced that they will shrink the fuel vehicle product lineup, while the latter abandoned the European business. But while slowing down on the one hand, but not a little lax on the other hand, Volkswagen is working hard to build a new energy system, and GM has won the Navigant Research autopilot strength list after acquiring Cruise.
For Chinese car companies, it is necessary not only to speed up the gap in the platform structure, powertrain and manufacturing process of the fuel vehicle field, but also to accelerate the pace of marching in the new technology routes such as intelligent network and new energy. In the era of intelligent electric vehicles, the battlefield fights lay a good foundation.
The core goal of “Made in China 2025†will remain the same. As a passenger vehicle industry that can incite a large number of key upstream and downstream industries and temporary shortcomings, it is necessary to contribute to the macro plan by surpassing the efforts of other branches. a force.
Cars are a century-old industry, and we unfortunately lag behind the world in the last round. However, with the rise of the entire Chinese manufacturing industry, China's auto industry is bound to change from the initial "being driven" to the most powerful boosting force, thus standing in the world's car forest.
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