Daily Comment: Stocks are in a hurry, short-term domestic steel prices are still rising

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Today's point of view

Today's black commodity futures are mixed, with rebar and hot coil main contracts being stronger, and coke contracts relatively weak. Except for small-volume contracts for hot-roll contracts, all other varieties are lightened, with rebar and iron ore contracts being lightened. obvious. Due to environmental impact, disk profit has expanded again. In terms of spot, today's varieties of stocks continue to rebound, although the high-level transactions are general, but the merchants take into account the low inventory, the reluctance to sell is heavier, the price is still running. In the short-term, inventory will still be difficult to accumulate due to supply and demand mismatches. In the face of rising costs and tight supply, short-term domestic steel prices are expected to continue to rise and debug.

Macro hotspot

1. [Apple futures pulled up late, most of the blacks closed up] Apple, Zheng cotton, cotton yarn closed up more than 2%, manganese silicon, crude oil, thread rose more than 1%, corn, Shanghai aluminum, hot coil, coke, coking coal Shanghai zinc, Shanghai nickel, soybean meal, Shanghai tin, ferrosilicon, rapeseed, and Shanghai silver closed up. Zhengmei closed down 1.5%, and glass, plastic, Zhengyou, Shanghai lead, sugar, Shanghai copper, rubber, Zheng alcohol, eggs, Shanghai gold and so on closed down.

2, [The index is not warm all day, the reform of the central enterprises is in the end of the plate]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,876.40 points, up 0.26%, with a turnover of 119.5 billion.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 917.78 points, down 0.03%, with a turnover of 153.6 billion.

The GEM closed at 1561.26 points, up 0.10%, with a turnover of 49.1 billion.

The Shanghai index rose 1.02% this month, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.83%.

3. Li Keqiang: Taking the “Shanghai Luntong” project as an opportunity during the year to actively cultivate the new Sino-British cooperation growth point] Premier Li Keqiang met with British Foreign Secretary Hunter stressed that China is willing to continue to uphold mutual respect and equality with the British side. The principle of waiting to promote the all-round development of bilateral relations and cooperation. The two sides should give full play to their complementary advantages and expand cooperation in various fields. With the opening of the “Huluntong” project during the year, the two sides will actively cultivate new cooperation growth points to better achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. China will create a better business environment for foreign companies in China, including the UK. It is hoped that the UK will provide a good system guarantee for Chinese companies to invest in the UK.

4. [Gao Shanwen: Comprehensive revision of macroeconomic policies, progress and degree will determine future economic and market trends] Gao Shanwen pointed out that in the face of the economic downside risks and the further accumulation of financial market pressure, the central bank recently issued new regulations on asset management. The notice of the rules, the Banking Regulatory Commission's introduction of bank financial rules, and the regular adjustment of the second half of the policy by the State Council will reflect the beginning of a comprehensive revision of the macroeconomic policy.

Market today

Raw material

Billet: The price of the national billet market is getting higher. Shandong, Shanxi, Tangshan steel billets rose 20 yuan / ton, Jiangsu part rose 30 yuan / ton. Today, Tangshan billet straight hair transaction can be, warehousing spot 3900-3920 yuan / ton tax-included out of the part of the low-cost transaction; steel futures shock, the downstream finished parts of the transaction is still acceptable, the overall transaction is general. Today, Shandong steel billet rose 20 yuan / ton, Q235 billet factory 3860-3870 yuan / ton, the transaction is still acceptable, the downstream more than inquiry, the middlemen rallies to ship.

Domestic mines: Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas increased slightly. Beijing Miyun in North China rose 21 yuan / ton. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 670-680 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out of 660-670 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 680-690 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 665-675 yuan / ton.

Imported mines: The import mine market is generally active. The sentiment of the two sides is not high. The quotes of the early traders are basically stable compared with yesterday. The mainstream price of Shandong PB powder is 485 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of PB powder in Tangshan port is 490 yuan/ton. The sales mentality of the price is relatively strong, while the steel mills are mainly wait-and-see, and the inquiry is mainly based on the trial price. The activity in the early afternoon market has improved, and the transaction as of the press release is acceptable.

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices continue to rise, and the growth rate narrows. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4331 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with East China, Central China, Northeast China and Southwest China rising across the board; prices in South China, Northeast China and Northwest China were stable. Going up. Specifically, due to the sharp increase in today's snails, the purchase of end customers is positive, and the spot market price is also climbing. Due to the tight market resources, the merchants are reluctant to sell. Prices have continued to rise in many markets today, and prices in some regions have risen twice. However, from the market feedback, the market has generally been sold. Tomorrow, the leading steel mills in East China will introduce the price policy in early August. The market expects a sharp rise. At the same time, combined with the short-term market conditions, domestic construction steel prices are expected to continue to rise.

Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide rose slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4,358 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4302. Yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's futures market continued to rise slightly, market confidence was relatively sufficient, and merchants' offers rose slightly. However, as the price continues to rise, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is aggravated, and the market transactions are generally average. In the short-term, under the support of low inventory and high cost operation, coupled with the push of futures, the overall market trend is stronger. In addition, today Tangshan billet market price rose 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,820 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Medium and heavy plate: Today, the domestic plate market price rose slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4,397 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall market atmosphere is good today, the merchants' offers are stable and slightly rising, and the low-cost resources are still acceptable. The orders of steel mills are saturated, especially in the northern region, which is affected by the upcoming limited production season. Traders have more active orders in order to maintain normal stocks. The order cost of steel mills has continued to climb in the near future and has strong support for market prices. At present, the market is relatively short, the inventory pressure is not large, the business mentality is more optimistic, and the overall market price is rising. In addition, today Tangshan billet market price rose 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,820 yuan / ton. On the whole, the price of the plate market is expected to fluctuate strongly tomorrow.

Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are rising and falling. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4748 yuan / ton, an increase of 1 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4730 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4730 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4560 yuan / ton. Market: Today's market prices have risen steadily except Beijing and Tianjin. However, due to the flat market demand, end customers do not accept the current price, so the overall cold rolling situation is more general. At present, there is no inventory pressure on the traders, and at the same time supported by the cost, there is limited room for the cold rolling price to fall in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the cold rolling will stabilize and stabilize in the near future.

Steel: Today, the domestic steel market price is stable and strong, and the growth rate in East China is relatively obvious. The national average price of the industrial angle slot and H-beam is about 10 yuan/ton. Specifically, the price of Tangshan steel in early trading was stable, affected by the increase of 10 yuan/ton double profit in the period of snails and steel billets. The market of steel was obviously improved, and the mainstream of intraday steel was up 10-20 yuan/ton. The overall transaction was active and market confidence continued. Enhanced, traders actively complement the library. The price of East China profiles increased slightly by RMB 10-30/ton, and the resources of major cities in some cities were in short supply, and the price increase was more obvious. The current spot is mainly due to the rising cost, the spot price will increase, and the inventory level is low, so the price may continue to be stable and strong in the short term. In the South China region, although steel billets and steel futures continue to rise today, due to insufficient downstream demand for South China profiles, prices are difficult to rise, and merchants' prices are more stable. At present, the market specifications are basically complete. Due to poor shipments, merchants are replenishing their products with caution, and late arrivals are less. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will continue to strengthen and operate tomorrow.

Steel pipe: Domestic welded pipe prices rose slightly on the 31st. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4466 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5186 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous trading day. 4 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 405mm national average price of 5273 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price rose 6 yuan / ton. Welded pipe: On the 31st, all products of Tianjin Lida Steel Pipe were raised by 20 yuan/ton, 4 inch*3.5 listing price: welded pipe 4560, galvanized pipe 5230, steel-plastic pipe 7390, overweight including tax. On the 31st, all products of Tianjin Juncheng Steel Pipe were raised by 20 yuan/ton, 4 inch*3.5 listing price: welded pipe 4510, galvanized pipe 5700, steel-plastic pipe 8180, overweight including tax. Seamless pipe: On the 31st, the price of seamless pipe in Linyi was stable. Now 57*3.5 Linyi (cold tube) 5250, 108*4.5 Linyi 4850. Market: Today, the mainstream welded pipes and galvanized pipes in the country are rising slightly, the prices of seamless pipes are temporarily stable, and individual cities are stable and strong. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the price of Ruifeng strip steel was slightly raised by RMB 20/ton today, and the ex-factory price of the mainstream pipe manufacturers in the country increased. According to the market, first, due to seasonal factors, the downstream operating rate has slowed down, but the terminal purchase volume is still low, and the traders' mentality is generally poor. Second, the strength of the “environmental protection wind” still dominates and the price rises. Short-term domestic welded pipe and galvanized pipe prices are expected to rise in a narrow range. In terms of seamless pipes, Shandong tube billet was stable today, and Jiangsu billet price rose by RMB 10-40/ton. The factory price of seamless pipe factory remained stable today. The prices of seamless pipes in various markets in the country are still stable. The overall demand for seamless markets in the near future has been in a tepid state. Therefore, the rise of raw materials is also difficult to drive the price increase of seamless pipes. The business mentality is more pessimistic, and the active replenishment The enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that the price of domestic seamless pipes will be stable in the short term.

Futures: Today, domestic black commodity futures are diverging. Finished products continue to rise slightly today, and raw materials are highly consolidating. At present, the main contracts of the black system are 1901, and the overall transaction is more active. Specifically: Today's spot market prices continue to rise, but as prices continue to rise, downstream acceptance is low, only low-end resources are still acceptable, and transactions have dropped significantly from the previous working day. From the news point of view, the August 1 discount of all steel mills in East China was announced, Yonggang's threaded 8 folds were fully folded, and Zhongtian threaded 5 folds were 50% off. The market expects steel mills to rise 100% tomorrow. In general, the spot cost will rise at a high level in the case of a steel mill's low rise. The seller will still maintain a high price. The black system will still maintain a high level of shocks. The above recommendations, the bargain-hunting is more, pay attention to the position.



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